Since the high-level economic and trade talks between China and the United States made substantial progress on May 12, foreign trade business in the United States has become active again, with the accelerated shipment of backlog of goods, new orders coming one after another, and cross-border logistics are in full swing... With the surge in US line inquiry, the "cabin grabbing fever" in the collective transportation market continues to appear, and sea freight costs soar.

What factors affect this round of price increase? July to September is the traditional peak export season, and the peak of shipments will continue. How can we relieve the "box sorrow" in the future? As a major foreign trade province, how can all parties work together to reduce the burden and cost of foreign trade enterprises and help "Made in Jiangsu" to better explore the market? In recent days, reporters have divided their troops and interviewed ports, logistics service providers, foreign trade companies, industry experts, etc.

The supply and demand situation has changed sharply.

US line "blank stock" brings chain reaction

At around 9 p.m. on June 6, a freight forwarding company in Lianyungang Economic and Technological Development Zone continued to incoming calls.

"Almost all routes are in liquidated. Many ships running other routes have begun to turn around and run the US route, and freight rates have also risen with routes such as the Middle East and Mexico. This is the chain effect of the price increase of US routes." The company's agent revealed that the average daily order volume of shipping companies is now more than three times that of the previous one, and freight rates are rising steadily. Most of the goods that have set sail now come from the first batch of booking customers in mid-May.

He gave an example: a 40HC container (40-foot high box) was shipped from Lianyungang to New York, USA. The freight rate soared from more than $2,000 in March to nearly $7,000, and it also rose to nearly $6,000 on the west coast of the United States. In addition, the spot price is higher than the long-term agreement. “If bookings continue to increase in the next two weeks, freight rates will rise further and supply chain pressure will be greater.”

China is one of the most important sources of imports in the United States. According to data from the US International Trade Commission, Chinese goods account for 65% of U.S. clothing imports and 52% of footwear imports. According to the latest China Export Container Transport Market Analysis Report for May 2025 released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, the average Shanghai Export Container Comprehensive Index, which reflects the spot market, is 1620.85 points, an average increase of 18.4% from the previous month. The North American route market rebounded, with the average freight indexes of China's exports to the United States and the United States East in May rising by 10.8% and 6.4% respectively compared with the previous month.

As US line freight rates soar, although the freight forwarding and logistics industry "received orders with mercy", it is also troubled by extreme uncertainty in the cabin space.

"The cabinets at the dock are very tight, and even if the freight costs have increased sharply recently, it is difficult to get them. Many of the cabins booked before have been invalidated." A freight forwarding industry insider in Yancheng told reporters that sea cargo spaces are temporarily cancelled, and even goods that are being transported by sea may receive a notice that additional fees must be paid after arriving at the port.

The reporter learned that in order to ensure that the ship is fully loaded, the shipping company will confirm the amount of cargo that can be transported on time during the booking stage, which is usually 120% of the actual space. In case of tight spaces, that is, when the so-called "deposit breakdown" occurs, the shipping company may refuse to load the shipper's cargo with low freight and common cooperative relationships with it, and postpone it to subsequent flights, resulting in the customer's cargo being delayed for a period of time before it arrives at the destination. This situation is called "cabinet dumping".

Behind the crazy "cabin grabbing wave", it is not that the industry intends to "keep the cabin and sell it with mercy", but that there are deep supply and demand issues.

Industry insiders told reporters that in late April, due to tariff expectations, the cargo volume of US lines fell, and shipping companies also adjusted their capacity accordingly, cancelled US lines in large quantities, and transferred capacity to routes such as Europe, Africa, India, Pakistan, and Southeast Asia with larger cargo volumes. It takes time for long routes to book cabins, carry cases, and packing. Now that demand has recovered, the available capacity is still on the way back, there is a time difference of more than ten days of ship transfer, and the supply of cabins is relatively tight, which has led to the continued increase in the spot market booking price.

"Previously, the US line market has accumulated more than a month of cargo volume, but now it is mainly concentrated shipment of accumulated orders. At the same time, American buyers are anxious about the uncertainty after 90 days, and are rushing to buy and stockpile Chinese good goods, which has led to the heating of US line shipping. Affected by transportation demand, the loading volume of international liner cargo collection ports has increased significantly." Jin Fei, head of the production business department of Jiangsu Ocean Transportation Co., Ltd., introduced.

The tight space situation has had a huge impact on the inventory management and supply chain optimization of foreign trade enterprises. Whether retailers or manufacturers, they must plan and prepare in advance to avoid inventory shortages or delays during the most concentrated period of demand. Some freight forwarding experts also have optimistic expectations. Lei Lei, the head of the US-Canada route of "Yunqu" predicts that with the return of overtime ships and the return of overall capacity, the increase in the cabin freight rate in June may be controlled to a certain extent.

Keep a close eye on the "window period",

"Seeking the needle" to rush out to sea

A product starts from a factory in China and finally arrives in the hands of overseas consumers. It is a complex chain that spans borders and involves multiple parties. Its core links usually include production and manufacturing, export customs declaration, international logistics, customs clearance in the country of destination, tail delivery, and terminal sales. In this chain, international maritime transportation, as the main mode of export of foreign trade enterprises, is often regarded as the most uncertain link due to freight rate fluctuations, shipping schedule arrangements, geopolitical risks, etc.

"We mainly use FOB Shanghai or FOB Zhuhai, and the company bears the container fee." Dong Xinli, chairman of Jiangsu Erman Lighting Co., Ltd., introduced that the container was booked in mid-May, and waited in line at Shanghai Port for more than 10 days to be declared into the cabin. The lamp products issued are still being transported by sea.

The FOB he mentioned is one of the commonly used trade terms in international trade, meaning "on-ship delivery" and is also the mainstream trade model adopted by both parties to the transaction. Under the FOB model, the seller is only responsible for safe delivery of the goods to the departure port and completing export customs declaration. The subsequent booking, shipping, destination port customs clearance and taxes shall be borne by the overseas purchaser. When buyers are under pressure for profits due to rising tariffs, they often try to lower the supply prices of factories. Whether the factory accepts it depends on the bargaining power of both parties and its inherent profit margin.

Some sellers with strong strength will choose other models, that is, they need to ship the goods to the destination port and bear freight, insurance, port fees and even tariffs. Many industry insiders admitted that low-value daily necessities such as tissues and cotton swab boxes may be less than the shipping cost after the shipping price soars.

But the current "window period" does not allow Chinese factories and American customers to hesitate and wait and see. They can do everything they can, and strive to catch up with the Prime Day (Amazon membership global shopping promotion) in July or the "Black Friday" promotion at the end of the year. Many American retailers prepare shipments for several quarters in advance and bear some of the shipping costs in the FOB model.

At noon on June 6, when the reporter came to Jiangsu Huateng Personal Care Products Co., Ltd., a batch of toothbrushes and inter-tooth brush products worth 1.2 million yuan were filling a container, preparing to sail to Shanghai Port and ship to the United States. Since the positive progress made in the high-level economic and trade talks between China and the United States, enterprises have produced batches and shipped one after another, and have successively issued orders worth more than 10 million yuan. Among them, the backlog of orders issued on May 20 has recently arrived at the Port of Long Beach in western North America.

"The new order takes a cycle from preparation to shipment, and generally takes 15-20 days to arrive at the destination port. We bear the cost from the factory to the Shanghai Port, and the customer bears the cost of the shipping from the Shanghai Port to the Long Beach Port in the United States." Mu Longsheng, the head of Huateng Company, stayed at the factory in Hangji Town, Yangzhou City throughout the Dragon Boat Festival holiday. He told reporters that old customers will place orders for several months together, basically no bargaining, only seeking fast. After coordination with customers from other countries, the factory currently gives priority to ensuring the delivery of US orders, and the automated machines in the production workshop run 24 hours a day. "There is still 20 million yuan orders to be sent to the United States. The factory's production plan is fully completed from June to August, and its performance is expected to exceed the same period last year."

"In the past, booking cabins a week in advance, now it must be at least 15 days in advance." Mu Longsheng admitted that in the past month, in order to transport the "window period" goods, the team has kept a close eye on the dynamics of ports such as Shanghai and Ningbo every day. "The rear is speeding up production 24 hours a day, and the front is connected to logistics "something to take advantage of the situation" to grab cabins and go out to sea."

Multiple parties work together,

Ensure that enterprises go overseas "more stable"

Faced with the current peak of the US line, many ports and shipping companies have also actively "reduced the burden" for foreign trade enterprises by allocating overtime ships.

On the berth shoreline of Zhenghe International Container Terminal in Suzhou Port, there are several "Su Shen Express" "passing through the Ba". The so-called "passing through the Ba" is a container liner route mode, which connects multiple ports and allows goods to flow efficiently between ports. Under the tension in the US line cabin, "Sushen Express" not only added a number of new ships, but also the flight schedule for connecting to the US route to the Yangshan Port Area in Shanghai is also increasing, and the remaining capacity can also be connected to port areas such as Shanghai Waigaoqiao.

"Compared with direct towing of Shanghai Port by collecting cards, the cargo of hinterland enterprises arrives at Yangshan Port through the 'Sushen Express Airlines', greatly reducing the risk of counter-rowing, and the cargo can seamlessly connect the trunk ship to leave the country." Liu Bin, manager of the terminal's operation operation department, said.

Lianyungang Port is also busy under the night. "Lianyungang Port has always provided priority berthing services to the Northwest U.S. route opened by COSCO Shipping in Lianyungang." Zhu Lili, director of the container business department of Lianyungang Port Holdings Group Co., Ltd., revealed that COSCO Shipping invested a US-Canada ocean-season route in Lianyungang in July 2024, and the affiliation port sequence is "Ningbo-Shanghai-Vancouver-Seattle-Lianyungang-Ningbo", with an average of 2-3 ships per month. Since there is only one of the Lianyungang US line and its overall scale is relatively small, there is no large amount of cargo congestion.

Faced with the upcoming traditional peak export season, Lianyungang Port will focus on Southeast Asia, India, Pakistan, the Middle East, Japan and South Korea to actively strive for shipping companies to introduce encrypted routes or expand cabin space. At the same time, "Lianshen Express" is actively looking for ships, striving to change from (standard container) container ships to ship types in the third quarter. The Lianyungang to Taicang and Lianyungang to Ningbo branches will also actively strive to enlarge the cabin space or expand the ship size.

The reporter's investigation learned that in order to help foreign trade enterprises relieve their "box worries", logistics service providers are also innovating measures - for example, using blockchain technology to record the entire life cycle status of containers (position, cleanliness, and maintenance records) to reduce idleness caused by information asymmetry; sign empty box replacement agreements with overseas ports and railway companies to reduce empty rebate rates; temporarily transform special boxes such as refrigerated boxes and open-top boxes into ordinary cargo boxes to alleviate the shortage of standard boxes in the short term; cooperate with customs to give priority berthing rights to ships carrying empty boxes, shortening the waiting time; etc.

"During the peak shipment period, logistics service providers can also share transportation capacity, warehousing and other resources through cooperation, and support and cooperate with each other." Zheng Wen, deputy general manager of Jiangsu Lianyungang Port Logistics Holdings Co., Ltd., said that when a logistics service provider has insufficient transportation capacity, it can use the transportation capacity of other peers to achieve optimized resource allocation. At the same time, we must actively communicate and coordinate with government departments, for example, cooperate with customs to strive to open green channels and speed up the customs clearance of goods; cooperate with transportation departments to ensure the smooth flow of transportation roads and provide convenience for cargo transportation.

Jiangsu is a major foreign trade province. How should all parties work together to ensure that foreign trade enterprises go overseas "more steadily and farther"? "From the perspective of regional economic development, high shipping costs in the US line are both challenges and opportunities." Zhang Chunlong, director of the Institute of Social Policy of the Provincial Academy of Social Sciences and a researcher, analyzed that this will have a short-term impact on export-oriented regions that are highly dependent on the US line. Low-value-added industries face pressures of order loss and profit compression, which forces regional industrial upgrading and structural optimization. Zhang Chunlong believes that Jiangsu needs to coordinate the cost pressure of US shipping through three-dimensional "industry upgrading logistics reconstruction policy empowerment". At the enterprise level, the transformation to new energy, high-end equipment and other fields should be accelerated; in terms of logistics strategies, the use of China-Europe freight trains should be given priority; the government needs to strengthen policy support. In addition, it is necessary to promote the intelligent upgrade of ports.

He Jianhua, a researcher at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences and director of the Institute of Modernization of the Yangtze River Delta of Nantong University, also suggested that the key to foreign trade companies going overseas is to be good at finding and expanding new markets. Developed countries in Europe and the United States have gradually become traditional markets for saturation and decay of consumption power, and Southeast Asia and the Pan-Pacific region, the Middle East, Africa, South America, etc. are all potential markets that should be explored.

Xinhua Daily·Jiaohuidian reporter Wan Chentian Mochi Fu Qi