The word "lips are dead and teeth are cold" comes from the story of Yu and Guo in the Spring and Autumn Period. Yu lent the Jin to defeat Guo, but Guo was destroyed, and Yu was also in trouble.

Simply put, the two countries depend on each other, and if something happens to one side, the other side cannot withstand it.

When it comes to Sino-Russia relations, many Chinese people think that Russia is next to China and has its interests tied together. If Russia loses, China will have to face the pressure on the West across the board.

But on the other hand, if Russia wins, will it be stable and will not turn against each other? This is not necessarily true.

Everyone knows the cause of the Russian-Ukrainian war, and its roots are in the Crimea incident in 2014. Russia felt that Ukraine was pro-Western and threatened its own safety, so it took action.

Western countries, especially the United States and the European Union, immediately imposed sanctions on Russia, frozen assets, cut off the SWIFT system, and gave Ukraine weapons. Russia's economy suffered a heavy blow, but it did not collapse. Why? Because China has become a big buyer.

After 2022, China-Russia trade volume has risen sharply, exceeding US$200 billion in 2023 and still rising in 2024.

Russia sells oil, natural gas and wood to China, and China exports machine tools, electronic parts and cars to go back. These things help Russia maintain the operation of war machines, such as CNC machine tools, directly increasing the production of shells.

British media have reported that Russia's shells are firing more and more, and it is inseparable from civilian equipment exported by China.

China is neutral in the war and does not directly give Russian military aid, but does not participate in Western sanctions. China visited Russia in 2023 and Putin visited China in 2024. The two signed a "Unlimited Partnership" statement.

The Western General said that China is Russia's backing, and NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg also accused China of supporting Russia's war in May 2024. However, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs repeatedly emphasized that a peaceful solution will not take sides.

This makes China-Russia relations look iron-deep, but is it really iron-deep? History tells us that there are no eternal allies among great powers, only interests.

If Russia wins, what does it mean to win?

Probably, it is to control eastern Ukraine, the Kyiv government replaces people, or freezes the conflict line.

Russia won, Putin's reputation rose, but the country was also damaged. The military suffered huge losses, the economy relied on energy exports, and Western sanctions were not withdrawn, so life was hard.

At that time, Russia will have to find someone to help rebuild. Who will help?

China is definitely the first choice.

Russia's Far East is rich in resources but has a small population, and Chinese companies are already investing in pipelines and railways. If they win, Russia may rely more on the Chinese market and sell more oil and gas in exchange for investment and technology.

This is good for China, because it distracts the West, the United States has to take care of both sides, Europe's security pressure is reduced, and China has a lot of room for the South China Sea and Taiwan issues.

But will Russia join forces with the West to deal with China? This is unlikely, but not zero.

Why small? Because Russia and the West have deep grudges. Russia believes that NATO's eastward expansion is a threat, and Ukraine is the fuse. Putin has made many speeches saying that the West wants to dismember Russia.

If we win the war, Russia will not easily believe in the West. There has been similar things in history. In the 1970s, China and the United States joined forces to deal with the Soviet Union because of their common enemy.

But now, Russia and China face US hegemony together. Russia wins, and it is more likely to strengthen the China-Russia axis rather than turn against each other.

From the expert's point of view, the Russian-Ukraine war has taught China a lesson, how to break economic sanctions and how to fight modern wars. China observes Russia's performance and adjusts its own strategy.

If Russia wins, China will benefit because it proves that it is feasible to fight the West.

The RAND company report said in May 2025 that Russia's victory will allow non-Western countries to reshape the international order, and China is the biggest beneficiary. But Western think tanks, like the Atlantic Council, believe that Russia will continue to fight against the West and will not turn.

Looking at the negative side, Russia won, there may be many internal problems. Putin's rule is stable, but the economy depends too deeply on China and becomes a "little partner."

Some Russian intelligence circles have begun to distrust China. The New York Times reported in 2025 that the FSB felt that China might take advantage of Russia's weakness and seize Siberian resources.

China is already building a new China-Russia trade route to bypass Western control. China is not stupid. Knowing that Russia wins, it can be used as a buffer zone to block the west from advancing eastward.

But if Russia really wants to join forces with the West, it needs to have big bait, such as lifting sanctions, returning assets, and technical cooperation.

But will the West give it? The US Congress brings Russia back? It is unlikely that the United States now regards Russia as a threat, and the Biden administration will also increase military aid to Ukraine in 2024.

There was a lively discussion on the Internet, and many posts said that China and Russia were the "Dragon Bear" combination, Russia won, and China won half of it. But what about winning? Russia may ask China to help economic recovery, but will not join forces with the West because of the heavy burden of history.

In the Soviet era, Sino-Soviet relations also had border conflicts, and almost started fighting in the 1960s. China-Russia cooperation is now deep, but Russia is vigilant about China's influence in the Far East.

In 2024, Putin visited China and emphasized China-Russia cooperation to fight against Western hegemony. If we join forces with the West, it will be a huge change. For example, the West promises not to expand eastwardly and Russia returns Crimea - this is impossible.

If Russia wins and is full of confidence, it may seize China's influence in Central Asia.

Central Asian countries like Kazakhstan, Russia has historical influence, and China has investment in the "Belt and Road". Russia won, and it may strengthen its military strength, and China has to be on guard. The West may also lend Russia and promise economic aid in exchange for Russia's neutrality against China.

The Brookings Institution reported in April 2025 that war changed Russia's global status, and it moved closer to China, Iran, and North Korea to form an anti-Western camp. If you win, this camp will be more stable and will not disperse.

From an economic perspective, Russia won, energy prices were stable, and China's imports were cheap.

China-Russia trade volume exceeded US$240 billion in 2024, and China is Russia's largest trading partner. Win, the trend continues. China exports dual-use technology to help Russia overcome sanctions.

If Russia joins forces with the West, will trade be cut off? It is impossible, the Russian economy cannot do without the Chinese market. Western sanctions continue, and Russia has to rely on China, India and Türkiye.

China does not want Russia to lose because it feels cold when it loses lips and teeth. The West encircles China, and Russia is the northern barrier. If Russia wins, China has a lot of diplomacy and can focus on the Asia-Pacific.

If Russia really joins forces with the West, China will be in trouble, but this assumption is too far away. In reality, China learns from Russia's experience and prepares for economic and technological wars.

China and Russia help Russia win? It’s not simple, the interests of major countries are preferred. There is no eternal enemy. If Russia wins, it will not easily deal with China because its interests are tied to death.

Russia wins and is more likely to strengthen Sino-Russia cooperation to fight against the West. Joining forces with the West to deal with China will bring Russia's brains into the water.

Historical grievances, economic dependence, and geopolitical reality make this difficult to accomplish. The delay in the Russian-Ukraine war is not a good thing for China. It consumes Western resources, but it also puts great pressure on China.

I hope that the ceasefire will be settled as soon as possible and through negotiation, everyone will benefit.

References: