Faced with the weak global economic recovery and the pressure of domestic development transformation, the "Belt and Road" initiative has laid a solid foundation for the deepening of cooperation and enhancement of global influence through infrastructure connectivity, cross-border logistics efficiency improvement and economic and trade cooperation expansion. At present, driven by the great changes unseen in a century and the scientific and technological revolution, the "Global South" is experiencing an accelerated rise from a leap in the total economic volume to a governance system. Its cooperation model has shifted from project-oriented to institutional reconstruction, from a single platform to a compound system, and from a rule recipient to a co-former. In the future, it will promote a more inclusive new order of global development.

The "Belt and Road" initiative driven by the dual pressures at home and abroad proposed: Internationally, after the financial crisis in 2008, the global economy fell into structural low growth, anti-globalization and trade protectionism rose, global economic integration faced the risk of fragmentation, and new international cooperation platforms urgently needed to solve the dilemma. Domestic, China's economy has entered a "new normal", and the traditional development model has encountered bottlenecks, and it is necessary to optimize the internal and external demand structure and coordinated development with regional coordinated development through "going out". Against this background, the "Belt and Road" takes the principle of "consultation, joint construction and sharing" and builds a community of interests, responsibilities and shared future through the "five links", becoming an important link connecting all countries. In addition, the "Belt and Road" consolidates infrastructure facilities through three paths: First, the facilities are connected to build a regional interconnection framework; Second, the logistics efficiency is improved and the key links of regional circulation are opened up; Third, the economic and trade win-win construction of growth networks, and promote the coordinated leap of "global southern" countries in the construction of interconnection and rules.

The "Global South" countries are accelerating their rise under the background of a century of changes: at the governance level, structural contradictions in the global governance system are prominent, and the Western-led architecture is difficult to respond to the concerns of developing countries. The "Global South" countries have gradually leap from passive integration to active governance through the BRICS mechanism and the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation. At the economic level, the proportion of developing countries in global GDP increased from 25% in 2000 to 45% in 2024, and its contribution to global economic growth reached 60%. The total economic output of the BRICS countries has exceeded the G7, accounting for 30% of the global GDP and 45% of the population. At the financial level, the "Global South" countries have enhanced their voice in monetary and financial governance in international financial institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. On May 11, 2022, the IMF Executive Board raised the weight of the RMB from 10.92% to 12.28%, and the weight of the RMB still remained third.

The focus of the "Global South" and the "Belt and Road" is different: First, the focus has shifted from project-oriented to institutional-oriented, and has upgraded from the infrastructure connectivity of the "Belt and Road" to the reconstruction demand for the governance systems such as IMF share reform and climate financing, so as to promote developing countries to participate in the formulation of rules. Second, the platform has expanded from a single to a composite system, and developed from a single platform dominated by China to a multilateral network covering multiple issues such as the BRICS mechanism and the SCO. Third, the role of the state has changed from a rule recipient to a co-former. Through innovations such as the new development bank and local currency settlement, such as the proportion of China-Russia trade RMB settlement has steadily increased, and the transaction volume of ASEAN local currency settlement system has also increased significantly.

In the future, the "Global South" will depict a new picture of more inclusive development: the rise of the "Global South" not only means the improvement of economic interests, but will also promote the evolution of the global governance system to multipolarization and decentralization, and create a new era of equality, justice and sustainable global development. First, economic and trade cooperation has been upgraded from resource-based product trade to industrial coordination and rule-making co-construction, reducing the dependence on exports of primary products; second, financial cooperation has enhanced economic autonomy through the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and local currency settlement, and got rid of external financial constraints; third, mechanisms have coordinated to resolve infrastructure deficits and development bottlenecks, and enhance the voice of rule-making in the fields of digital economy, green technology, etc.

Risk warning: 1. Risk of insufficient policy understanding; 2. Risk of insufficient implementation of domestic policies; 3. Risk of insufficient implementation of foreign policies.

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At present, the international environment is undergoing profound changes. Faced with major changes unseen in a century and the rapid development of global science and technology, the "Global South" focuses increasingly on the transformation of the global governance system and the improvement of voice in developing countries. After the 2008 financial crisis, the weak global economic recovery was intertwined with regional development imbalances, coupled with domestic transformation pressure, and jointly promoted the "Belt and Road" initiative, which is based on infrastructure connectivity, came into being. The initiative aims to improve the level of connectivity and deepen trade and investment cooperation, effectively respond to the difficulties of global economic and trade development, and provides key support and create favorable conditions for the "Global South" countries to enhance regional cooperation, deepen international cooperation, and thus enhance their global influence.

The "Global South" countries have ushered in a historic opportunity for strategic upgrades and pattern reconstruction. This upgrade process is driven by triple forces: First, the reform pressure formed by the dual interweaving of global governance imbalances and century-old changes. Second, the technological revolution empowers, emerging countries use this to break their path dependence to achieve economic leap. The proportion of developing countries in global GDP (GDP) has increased from 25% in 2000 to 45% in 2024, and its contribution to global economic growth has reached 60%. Third, reform of the international financial system. On May 11, 2022, the IMF Executive Board completed a five-year SDR fixed value review, maintaining the composition of the existing SDR basket currency unchanged, and raising the RMB weight from 10.92% to 12.28%, and the RMB weight remains third. At the same time, the "Global South" has gradually achieved three major upgrades at the strategic level. First, the demand for transformation: upgrade from the infrastructure connectivity of the "Belt and Road" to the reconstruction of the system, and promote the shift of developing countries from passive integration to active governance; second, platform expansion: the single platform led by China has expanded into a multilateral mechanism composite network such as BRICS and SCO, covering multiple issues such as sub-green, digital, security, and finance; third, role leap: promote co-governance of rules through innovations such as new development banks and local currency settlement, and realize the transformation from a rule recipient to a co-brander.

1. The "Belt and Road" initiative driven by the dual pressures at home and abroad

In 2013, the proposal of the "Belt and Road" initiative actively responded to the deep-seated global changes and its own development and transformation. From an international perspective, the continued impact of the financial crisis and the heating of anti-globalization thoughts have created an urgent need for new international cooperation platforms and infrastructure investment; from a domestic perspective, China's economy has entered a "new normal", the traditional development model is facing the pressure of transformation, and the adjustment of the internal and external demand structure and regional coordinated development have become the top priority.

(I) Global economic recovery is weak

Since the global financial crisis in 2008, the global economy has recovered sluggishly, the growth rate of trade and investment has continued to decline, and the potential growth momentum has weakened significantly. The global economy is in a structural low growth channel, and most economies are facing the reality of weak foreign demand and growth bottlenecks, and urgently need to find new international cooperation mechanisms and growth momentum. At the same time, the trend of anti-globalization has intensified, and trade protectionism and unilateralism are on the rise. Some developed countries have promoted industrial localization by setting up tariff barriers, non-tariff barriers and restricting technology transfer, and thus faced the risks of trust deficits and fragmentation.

The "Belt and Road" initiative came into being under this background. It emphasizes the principle of "consultation, joint construction and sharing", and has signed cooperation documents on jointly building the "Belt and Road" with more than 150 countries. It is widely distributed on five continents. It takes the "five links" of policy communication, facility connectivity, smooth trade, financial and people-to-people connections as a starting point, and is committed to building a community of interests, responsibility and community of shared future for economic integration and cultural mutual tolerance.

(II) Domestic development transformation pressure

The endogenous pressure of China's economic transformation and upgrading is also an important driving factor proposed by the "Belt and Road" initiative. After long-term rapid growth, China's economy has entered a "new normal" with quality and efficiency as the core orientation, facing multiple challenges such as growth gear shift, structural optimization, and momentum conversion. The traditional model relies on resource investment, low-cost labor and heavy asset expansion. However, as the margins of factor dividends weaken, resource and environmental constraints become tighter, the domestic demand structure is upgraded, the original growth path is encountered bottlenecks, and the traditional model is difficult to support future sustainable development. Against this background, some industries have experienced structural supply and demand imbalances, reduced resource allocation efficiency and pressure on return on capital, which has prompted enterprises to actively seek overseas market opportunities, expand the international market and extend the industrial chain by "going out".

Optimizing domestic regional balanced development is another domestic motivation proposed by the Belt and Road Initiative. From the perspective of the opening pattern, the previous model of focusing on opening up to the east needs to be adjusted urgently. It is necessary to cooperate with countries along the route through opening up to the west to form an external economic corridor that runs across the east, middle and west, which not only provides space for domestic industrial upgrading, but also injects new impetus into regional coordinated development.

(III) Triple paths: Unicom, efficiency improvement and win-win

The Belt and Road Initiative aims to build regional integrated economic and trade cooperation through facility connectivity, logistics efficiency improvement and economic and trade expansion. The "Belt and Road" uses railways, highways, ports, aviation and other infrastructure as the fulcrum to create an Internet network covering Asia, Africa and Latin America and open up the development artery. The cost of infrastructure has reduced the cost of logistics flow, and coupled with the cooperation of customs clearance coordination and institutional reform, it has effectively improved the efficiency of cross-border trade. On this basis, economic and trade cooperation has been continuously deepened, and free trade agreements, production capacity cooperation and industrial park construction have been steadily advancing. The Belt and Road Initiative has moved from vision to practice. The trade export volume of countries along the route accounts for nearly 40% of the world's share, and the amount of trade and investment with China has also continued to rise, promoting a coordinated leap in the areas of connectivity and co-construction of rules in southern countries around the world.

1. Facilities Unicom: Build an interconnected framework for regional development

The Belt and Road Initiative is committed to building a three-dimensional infrastructure interconnection network that connects land, sea and air, and emphasizes that improving the connectivity capabilities of developing countries through "hard connectivity" is a prerequisite for promoting regional cooperation and economic integration. In terms of land, the China-Laos Railway has built a direct connection channel between southwest China and the Indochina Peninsula; the Jakarta-Bandung High-speed Railway, as the first high-speed railway in Southeast Asia, further improved the regional onshore transportation level. In terms of the Maritime Silk Road, my country cooperates with countries along the route to build ports such as Gwadar Port, Piraeus Port, and Hambantota Port, and expands new "Belt and Road" routes for domestic ports such as Qingdao Port, strengthening the interconnection of maritime networks. In addition, in terms of aviation channels construction, my country has signed air transport agreements with many co-construction countries, and the number of new routes and modern airport projects has continued to increase, greatly broadening the air channels and providing more efficient support for personnel exchanges and cargo transportation.

2. Logistics efficiency improvement: open up the key links of regional circulation

Infrastructure Unicom has significantly improved cross-border logistics efficiency and has become a key driving force for accelerated integration of regional markets. For a long time, excessive logistics costs and customs clearance barriers have been important bottlenecks that restrict the integration of southern countries into the global value chain, and the construction of the "Belt and Road" has played a significant role. The land transportation system represented by the China-Europe freight train has built a multi-national direct access channel running through China and Europe, saving nearly one-third of the transportation time compared with traditional sea transportation, opening up a new channel for high-value-added manufacturing products and cross-border e-commerce. As of June 2025, the total number of China-Europe freight trains has exceeded 110,000, showing the vigorous development of the multimodal transport system.

3. Win-win economic and trade: Building a stable and open growth network

Based on the improvement of connectivity and logistics efficiency, the scale of trade and investment between countries along the route continues to expand, and the "Belt and Road" has gradually formed a cooperation network with stable mechanism support. Firstly, it is reflected in the two-way flow of capital. From 2021 to the first half of 2025, my country and the two-way investments between China and the co-construction countries exceeded US$240 billion, of which more than US$160 billion were direct investments in the co-construction countries, and more than US$80 billion were invested in China. Secondly, trade integration continues to deepen. In the first half of 2025, the total import and export volume of my country and the countries jointly built the "Belt and Road" reached 11.29 trillion yuan, accounting for 51.8% of the total import and export volume of the country. Finally, the scope of cooperation has been continuously expanded. The total amount of construction contract projects signed by China for countries along the "Belt and Road" has reached US$124 billion, focusing on high-value-added areas such as infrastructure, clean energy, and industrial chain supporting facilities.

2. The accelerated rise of "global south" countries under the background of century-old changes

The world today is undergoing major changes unseen in a century. The intensified strategic competition among major powers, the reshaping of geopolitical patterns, and the differentiation and evolution of global orders, marking that the world system with the West as its core is facing a deep impact. At the same time, global science and technology are accelerating its leap, and new technologies such as digital economy, artificial intelligence, and green energy are profoundly changing development models and production methods, giving emerging market countries strategic opportunities to transcend path dependence. The "Global South" represented by Asia, Africa, Latin America, etc. is moving towards collective rise, not only occupies an increasingly important position in the global economy, but also constantly issues stronger institutional demands in the international governance system.

(I) The structural contradictions in the global governance system are becoming increasingly prominent

The structural problems of the current global governance system are the fundamental reason for the collective rise of the "Global South". The international governance structure formed after World War II has long been tilted towards Western countries in terms of power distribution and rule setting, seriously ignoring the actual concerns and development rights of developing countries. First, the distribution of power is imbalanced. Major financial institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank have long been dominated by the West, and developing countries lack voice in governance structures and decision-making mechanisms. Secondly, the inclusiveness of rules is lacking. When responding to urgent challenges such as vaccine distribution, climate financing, and debt sustainability, global governance rules have repeatedly ignored the actual needs and historical responsibilities of developing countries, and the rule-making process lacks representation. This institutional imbalance has aggravated distrust between the north and the south, prompting the "global south" countries to build consensus and seek collective voice and institutional breakthroughs.

A new cooperation mechanism with deep participation of the "Global South" is booming. Platforms of southern countries such as the BRICS Mechanism, China-ASEAN Free Trade Zone, China-Africa Cooperation Forum, and Shanghai Cooperation Organization have grown rapidly. These organizations not only form a southern cooperation network on traditional issues such as finance, trade, and infrastructure, but also propose alternative solutions at the institutional level, such as promoting local currency settlement, establishing a new development bank, and reforming the global governance structure. This series of institutional exploration and practice marks the shift of the "Global South" from passive adaptation to actively shaping international rules, laying a crucial institutional foundation for the further leap in its economic strength.

(II) The Southern Economic Rise under Global Industrial Restructuring

The continued growth of economic strength is the direct driving force for the rise of the global South. Since the end of the Cold War, the global industrial division of labor has been deeply adjusted. For cost and risk considerations, multinational corporations have transferred a large number of labor-intensive and resource-intensive links in the production chain to southern countries around the world, prompting them to quickly embed them into the global value chain. A number of "southern countries" represented by China, India, Vietnam, Indonesia and Egypt have completed the rapid accumulation of manufacturing foundation through "industry embedding structural transformation" and have become "emerging forces in manufacturing." After entering the 21st century, the scientific and technological revolution and industrial revolution have brought latecomer advantages to southern countries. In the fields of intelligent manufacturing, digital payment, renewable energy, some southern countries around the world have achieved technological "overtaking on the curve". For example, India has achieved rapid development in the fields of digital identity and financial technology, while China has the leading technology in new energy and digital infrastructure. The qualitative change in economic strength is directly reflected in the historic leap of total quantity and contribution: At present, the proportion of developing countries in global GDP has increased from 25% in 2000 to 45% in 2024, and its contribution to global economic growth has reached 60%; emerging forces represented by BRICS countries, their economic aggregate has exceeded the G7, with GDP exceeding US$60 trillion (about 30% of the world), and more than 45% of the world's population and about 20% of the global trade share, reshaping the world's economic power pattern.

(III) Improvement of status in the international financial system

The "Global South" countries have enhanced their voice in monetary and financial governance in international financial institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. In recent years, through the protection of rights and efforts of southern countries, the IMF and the World Bank have made progress in the reform of governance structures, and the share and voting rights of new international and developing countries have increased. For example, on May 11, 2022, the IMF Executive Board completed a five-year SDR fixed value review, maintaining the composition of the existing SDR basket currency unchanged, and raising the weight of the RMB from 10.92% to 12.28%. The weight of the RMB remains third, marking an improvement in the status of the "global southern" countries represented by China in the global financial system. In addition, the "Global South" countries are leading the construction of new financial mechanisms and gradually reducing their dependence on the US dollar and the Global Interbank Financial Telecommunications Association (SWIFT) payment system. Southern countries attach importance to establishing an international payment system that is different from the US dollar and SWIFT, providing diversified options for global development financing. For example, Brazil proposes to establish a common currency in South America, while India uses local currency settlement in oil imports, which has enhanced the autonomy of the "Global South" countries in international financial transactions and promoted the evolution of the international financial order in a more fair and inclusive direction.

3. The focus of "Global South" and "Belt and Road" is different

The Belt and Road Initiative has obviously become an important link and engine for strengthening cooperation between southern countries around the world. The rise of the global South is the general trend and a model jointly initiated and advocated by the vast number of developing countries. The profound meaning of "Global South" is that it is no longer limited to project cooperation, but takes the reconstruction of the system as its core demand, showing the transformation of southern countries from passive integration to active governance. Compared with the "Belt and Road" focusing on practical paths with project cooperation as the core, the "Global South" emphasizes more on standardized construction, rule game and global governance rebalancing, expanding the depth of participation of developing countries.

(I) Differences in focus: from project orientation to system orientation

The "Belt and Road" uses engineering paths to reshape the pattern of regional connectivity and geopolitical cooperation, while the Global South seeks to reconstruct the global governance system. The Belt and Road Initiative promotes international cooperation mainly focuses on infrastructure construction and economic and trade investment. Its core concept is to improve transportation and logistics conditions, promote transnational trade and factor flow through combining hard connectivity (infrastructure) and soft connectivity (rules and standards), thereby promoting sustainable economic growth of countries along the route and building a mutually beneficial and win-win cooperation pattern.

The "Global South" shift to a deeper institutional orientation represents the institutional consciousness after the collective rise of emerging countries, emphasizing the reform and improvement of the global governance structure and the balanced development of the international discourse system. From IMF share reform to climate governance and then to digital sovereignty, southern countries have formed coordinated voices and common demands on core issues, aiming to increase participation in formulating global governance rules.

(II) The breadth of platforms: from a single platform to a composite system

The "Global South" is not only reflected in the improvement of the demand content, but also in the expansion of the platform mechanism. Its cooperation has expanded to multilateral and multi-mechanical networks, presenting a cross-regional, cross-mechanical and cross-projective compound cooperation pattern. At present, the "Global South" countries generally carry out cooperation through multiple multilateral mechanisms such as the BRICS Framework, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the APEC, the China-ASEAN Free Trade Zone, and the China-Africa Cooperation Forum. The "wide" of the global south is reflected in two dimensions: one is that the coverage is wider, including most developing regions such as Asia, Africa, and Latin America, as well as multiple issues such as security, finance, digital, and environment; the other is that the mechanism types are diverse, from financial cooperation and economic integration, from rule initiatives to cultural identity, forming a composite system of horizontal connectivity and vertical deepening.

(III) Changes in the pattern: From passive recipients to active makers

The more profound changes in the "Global South" are reflected in the gradual transformation of developing countries from passive recipients of global governance rules to active co-shapers. Developing countries are completely reversing the long-term trend of being on the edge of the system, achieving deep integration through coordinated multilateral mechanisms, and working together to build a new global cooperation network that can accurately reflect the demands of developing countries and have the ability to build an institutional construction. At the same time, the "Global South" is transcending the single positioning of the traditional "collection of economies", focusing on strategic consensus and converging global rules to govern together. The establishment of new development banks, emergency reserve arrangements, and innovative systems such as promoting local currency settlement and South-South financial cooperation, all reflect the historic leap of the "Global South" from the edge of the international order to the rule-making co-branders. Its institutional propositions and political will will become key variables to reshape future global governance.

4. A new development picture of the "Global South" countries

The "Global South" countries are expected to move towards a more inclusive and open future. The internal trade, investment and technology flows of the "Global South" will be more active, forming a stronger South-South cooperation engine, and multiple modern models coexist and learn from each other, and the development results will benefit people of all countries more equitably. The position of the "Global South" in the global value chain has moved from the low-end to the mid-to-high-end, building a fairer global development pattern, and forming a multi-polar and decentralized global governance system.

(I) Transformation and upgrading of economic and trade cooperation paradigm

The "Global South" not only continues to promote traditional commodity trade, but also expands its deeper industrial coordination and rule-building. This reconstruction process is manifested in the shift of trade structure from resource-based products to manufacturing intermediates and technical products. The "Global South" countries deeply participate in and lead this process, which will gain substantial benefits beyond the traditional cooperation model. The most direct dividend is the expansion of market access and trade facilitation. Benefiting from a smoother trade corridor and more inclusive trade and investment rules, the cost of trade logistics between southern countries is reduced, which is convenient for expanding the export market, attracting more diversified investment, and stimulating new momentum for economic growth. At the same time, through infrastructure connectivity under the framework of the "Belt and Road", the "Global South" countries will have the opportunity to enhance their position in the global industrial supply chain, reduce their dependence on primary product exports and single markets, and promote the diversification and industrialization of the economic structure. Key resources such as renewable energy will obtain more equitable mechanisms and sustainable development paths under the new cooperation framework, which will be transformed into long-term development advantages.

(II) Financial cooperation promotes the enhancement of autonomy

The diversified investment and financing system has enabled the "Global South" countries to obtain financial support channels outside traditional international financial institutions. For example, the innovative rating system of the AIIB has reduced the financing cost of infrastructure projects; local currency settlement and regional payment systems have been further developed in global southern cooperation, and the proportion of China-Russia trade RMB settlement has soared from 3% in 2014 to 65% in 2023. The transaction volume of ASEAN local currency settlement (LCS) system has increased by 7 times in two years, effectively reducing the dependence on a single reserve currency; these breakthroughs in the financial field not only solve the urgent need for project funds shortage, but also help developing countries gradually get rid of external financial constraints and establish a more independent and stable economic development model, laying a solid foundation for long-term sustainable development.

The process of RMB internationalization has become the core driving force for southern countries to enhance financial autonomy. According to the Bank of China's "2025 RMB Internationalization White Paper", the national cross-border RMB settlement volume in 2024 reached 64.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.5%, of which the settlement volume of goods trade and securities investment was 12.4 trillion yuan and 28.7 trillion yuan respectively, indicating that the ability of RMB to serve the real economy and global capital flows has been significantly enhanced. In countries along the "Belt and Road", the scale of RMB settlement increased by 45.1% year-on-year, reflecting the increase in the efficiency and acceptance of currency use in regional cooperation. At the same time, domestic and foreign enterprises generally plan to maintain or increase the RMB settlement ratio. Many enterprises intend to use RMB as financing currency. Domestic RMB assets held by overseas entities reached 9.8 trillion yuan, and the coverage of offshore RMB products has expanded. These trends not only consolidate the international functions of the RMB, but also provide a realistic choice for southern countries to build a sovereign monetary and financial system in the context of de-dollarization.

(III) Mechanisms collaboratively crack development bottlenecks

The Belt and Road Initiative has formed an in-depth consensus with the development needs of southern countries around the world, which will help jointly respond to development bottlenecks. In terms of institutional connection, policy coordination is formed with regional free trade agreements and economic development plans to achieve an organic combination of hardware investment and software supporting facilities. The "Global South" has the opportunity to participate in the formulation of international rules and gain substantive voice in key areas such as digital economy rules, green technology standards, and climate change adaptation. Relying on the "Belt and Road" cooperation mechanism, the closer "Global South" coordination network can not only form a synergy in international negotiations, enhance the bargaining power for developed economies, and strive for more favorable conditions, but also obtain more effective information sharing, technical cooperation, financial support and joint action mechanisms through a collaborative framework on global issues related to survival and development such as food security, energy security, and climate change adaptation, and jointly enhance the ability to resist risks.

The core of the "Global South" is to unlock development potential and share a prosperous future. This not only means gaining tangible economic benefits and development resources, but also means winning the right to participate in international rules formulation, the right to speak in global affairs governance and the right to choose its own development path. The "Global South" countries are expected to work together to shape a new order of global development that is more equal, just and sustainable, and create a new era for southern countries.

5. Risk warning

1. Risk of inadequate policy understanding;

2. Domestic policies are under implementation as expected risks;

3. Risks that foreign policies are not implemented as expected.

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This article is excerpted from: China Galaxy Securities' research report released on August 8, 2025 "[CGS-NDI Research] Global South Series: "One Belt, One Road" empowers the inclusive development of the "Global South""

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