37 top US strategists met behind closed doors, and the conclusions were surprisingly consistent: If mainland China initiates the unification process, the cost of direct intervention by the US military will be "unbearable". The only option is to give up military intervention and turn to economic sanctions and strategic contraction.

The conclusion that sounds exaggerated is a reality that has to be faced.

At the military level, 18 war games simulations of the US military showed that intervening in the Taiwan Strait would lose at least 2 aircraft carriers, 20 main warships and hundreds of fighter jets. The Dongfeng-26 missile range covered Guam, and the success rate of hypersonic weapons penetration was 100%. The US aircraft carrier was forced to retreat to the second island chain.

In addition, the trade volume between China and the United States is US$690 billion, and 35% of the United States' clothing and 50% of small household appliances rely on China.

If sanctions are imposed, the U.S. inflation rate may soar to 12%, and GDP losses exceed US$1.2 trillion, which is equivalent to an increase of US$3,000 per household's annual expenditure.

In addition, when allies undermine Taiwan, Japan shouted "If there is something wrong with the Taiwan Strait, Japan will have something wrong", while tightening its semiconductor exports to Taiwan. South Korean President Lee Jae-ming bluntly stated that "Taiwan has nothing to do with South Korea", and the EU was even more mocked "treat Taiwan as a chamber pot and throw it away after use."

It can only be said that in addition to the "dilemma" now, it is also a historical necessity.

The American military myth has long gone bankrupt.

The 2025 China Military Power Report of the US Department of Defense shows that the range of the Dongfeng-26 anti-ship ballistic missile deployed by the PLA around the Taiwan Strait covers Guam, the Dongfeng-17 hypersonic missile has a penetration speed of Mach 10, and the successful interception of the US THAAD system is zero.

What's even more deadly is the newly built "Underground Great Wall" missile cave library along the coast of Fujian, which can hide 500 missiles, and even the most advanced satellites in the United States cannot be located.

You should know that ten years ago, the US military was able to cruise freely in the Western Pacific. Now, the "Underground Great Wall" missile cave library along the coast of Fujian can hide 500 missiles of various types and the Dongfeng-1710 Mach penetration speed, making the THAAD system a decoration.

Rand's nearly 20 war chess performances stated that even if the US military invests all 11 aircraft carriers, the probability of defeat is still as high as 78%, and it may lose 2 aircraft carriers and 20 main warships in the first week.

In addition, former Defense Secretary Esper confessed in Foreign Affairs magazine that the US aircraft carrier is like a living target in front of the Dongfeng missile. American shipyards even lack sufficient dry docks to repair damaged ships, exposing the fatal shortcomings of the industrial foundation.

What is even more fatal is the military-civilian integration combat power. China can mobilize nearly 2,000 civilian ships to assist in combat, while the production capacity of US shipyards is insufficient, and even dry docks for repairing damaged ships are in short supply.

In addition, the United States seems to have taken control of Taiwan, but TSMC cannot move it, and sanctions on it will also backfire American companies. The United States once regarded Taiwan as a "chip-throat ace". After all, 92% of the world's high-end chips are produced in Taiwan, but the transfer of the industrial chain has completely failed.

In addition, the production rate of TSMC's Arizona factory is only 60%, and the mass production of chips in Japanese factories is two generations behind the mainland foundry.

China's rare earth processing accounts for 90% of the world and lithium battery production capacity accounts for 60%. The United States' strong promotion of "de-Sinicization" has actually caused India's production line costs to soar by 30%.

If war begins in the Taiwan Strait, the US 55% tariff on China will be directly exposed to local inflation, Apple, Tesla and other 100 billion yuan revenue in China evaporate, and 2.8 million jobs are in danger.

Not to mention, the American tradition of "abandoning children" has long been doomed.

66% of Americans oppose participating in the war for Taiwan, and 72% give priority to domestic difficulties such as medical care and inflation. Former intelligence officer Philip Gerald said bluntly: "Taiwan is just a pawn and is not worthy of betting on the country's destiny."

As early as 1950, Truman stated that he would not intervene in China's internal affairs. In 1979, the United States and Taiwan "severe diplomatic relations and abolish the treaty" staged a replica of the "Saigon Iron Fist", and in 2021, Afghanistan's withdrawal of troops re-enacted the "allied tragedy".

What makes the United States even more anxious is the attitude of southern countries around the world. When Honduras and nine other countries "cut off diplomatic relations" with Taiwan, they only expressed their unwillingness to win the fire of the United States.

What's more, the free trade agreement signed by China with 152 countries and the infrastructure network covering 150 countries have weaved an economic community far beyond the United States' imagination.

Moreover, the wind direction of the Taiwan Strait has long changed. The Fujian cross-sea high-speed railway piers have reserved interfaces to Taiwan. Kinmen fishing boats sail side by side with mainland tourist boats. 152 countries around the world have signed the "Belt and Road" agreement, and ASEAN trade with China has exceeded US$600 billion...

Therefore, the United States' strategic contraction is not a concession, but a compromise to the historical trend. When strength cannot support the hegemony ambition, rational exit is the only choice. And cross-strait reunification is bound to be the general trend.