The Presidential Palace of Paraguay has released rumors, saying that it is "actively considering" inviting Taiwan leader Lai Ching-te to visit this year. When the news came back to China, the comment section was instantly infuriated: "Did Paraguay forget his friendship with China for 68 years?"

You should know that Paraguay is currently the only "diplomatic diplomatic country" in South America.

How are Lithuania, who dared to provoke China like this, doing now?

With the backlog of goods at the port, the plunge of corporate orders, and the public complaints, even the Chinese goods in supermarkets have become "hot potatoes". Now that Paraguay suddenly appears, is it really not clear that the situation is, or is there someone behind it?

A carefully planned "political show"

Paraguay is an inland country in South America with an area of 400,000 square kilometers, which is almost equivalent to four Jiangsu provinces, with a population of 7.4 million, which is not as large as that of Chaoyang District, Beijing.

Since establishing diplomatic relations with China in 1957, the two countries have maintained friendly and cooperative relations.

But since Tsai Ing-wen came to power in 2016, pro-green forces in Paraguay have begun to be ready, and last year, a member of parliament signed a so-called "promotion of Taiwan" proposal at the UN General Assembly.

This time, Lai Ching-te was invited to visit, obviously because he wanted to play the "Taiwan independence" card even louder.

Judging from the timeline, this "invitation" operation is very subtle. On the one hand, Paraguay will hold a presidential election in October this year, and the current candidate for the right-wing ruling party, Allegre, and the left-wing opposition candidate Castillo are fighting each other.

On the other hand, the United States has frequently sent officials to visit Latin America recently, publicly claiming to "strengthen Taiwan's participation in the international community."

Paraguayan media revealed that the US Embassy in Asuncion had recently had "informal contact" with senior opposition leaders, and the topics were inseparable from "relations to Taiwan".

China is Paraguay's second largest trading partner, with bilateral trade volume exceeding US$5 billion in 2024.

Paraguay's soybeans, beef and cotton are exported to China in large quantities. Soybeans alone can earn more than 200 million US dollars per year. Chinese infrastructure companies help Paraguay build roads and power stations, directly solving the employment of more than 30,000 people.

The most realistic thing is that China's COVID-19 vaccine aid to Paraguay has allowed this country with scarce medical resources to survive the most difficult period.

Can these loves be worth a few political checks?

"Political suicide"

Some people may say, "Isn't it just a leader's visit? There is no formal diplomatic relationship." But this kind of "semi-official" visit is essentially a political show for the "Taiwan independence" forces to be excited.

Lithuania allowed the Taiwan authorities to set up a "representative office" to please the United States and exchange some benefits. What's the result?

China took decisive action, downgrading neutral diplomatic relations to agency level, directly cutting off the export market of Lithuanian agricultural products and laser equipment.

You should know that Lithuania's annual export volume to China is only more than 2 billion euros. This stick will be enough for them to suffer for several years.

If Paraguay learns from Lithuania, the outcome will only be even worse.

China's layout in the South American market has long been different from what it was ten years ago. China is the biggest buyer of Brazil's soybeans, Chile's copper ore, and Peru's fish meal.

Paraguay wants to bypass China and find a market?

First ask Argentina whether he agrees or not, and whether Uruguay is willing to take over.

Paraguayan people are not stupid. A poll last year showed that 68% of Paraguayans believe that "developing relations with China is more important than pleasing Taiwan", and 72% of small and medium-sized business owners clearly oppose "taking risks to undermine China-Pakistan cooperation."

Lai Ching-te is now unable to protect himself. Polls on the island show that his approval rating has dropped to 28%, which is lower than when Tsai Ing-wen stepped down. The so-called "visit" is just to show your presence and to give a warning to your competitors within the party.

But even scholars on the island can't stand this kind of operation of taking national sovereignty as a bet: "Lai Ching-te thought that visiting can attract votes, but he forgot that the international community had long seen through the tricks of the 'Taiwan independence' forces."

But we must be more wary of the United States' "black hands". In recent years, the United States has adopted the "sausage-cutting" tactic on the Taiwan Strait issue, from arms sales to politician visits, from the "Friendship to Taiwan Act" to win over allies, and step by step to test China's bottom line.

But China is not Lithuania, nor is it China in 1840. We have enough means to make any provocateur pay the price. Anything that can make troublemakers drink.

Paraguay's "triple dilemma"

Paraguay's beef and soybean exporters have had a hard time lately. Since China requires that all agricultural products must be re-exported through "diplomacy countries" such as Brazil and Argentina, the original profit of $200 per ton of soybeans was already being exploited by middlemen and paid $30. What is even more heartbreaking is that China's recent investment and construction of modern ports in Honduras has increased the beef export efficiency of this small Central American country by 40%. In contrast, Paraguay has been declining because it sticks to the "Taiwan independence" route, even the international competitiveness of its own agricultural products is declining.

The situation of the current President Peña is like walking a tightrope. The left side has to please the military and conservatives, and the right side has to deal with protests from farmers and business circles. The "New Agricultural Plan" he recently proposed seems to revitalize the industry, but in fact it has hidden mystery: the "green hydrogen energy project" mentioned in the plan can be seen as showing goodwill to the United States. However, the United States has not made any substantial promises to Paraguay so far. Instead, Chinese companies have quietly acquired the lithium mine development rights of neighboring Argentina.

When US Secretary of State Blinken recently peddled "democratic values" in South America, he did not mention Paraguay's "Taiwan independence" operation. However, the EU ambassador to Paraguay privately warned: "Don't think that you can eat delicious food and drink spicy food by following the United States." When Paraguay's agricultural products were unsalable due to the "Taiwan independence" issue, American supermarkets were filled with Brazilian soybeans, and Chinese consumers couldn't even remember the name of Paraguay beef.

Lithuania's "blood and tears lessons" are still in front of us. After Lithuania allowed Taiwan to set up a "representative office" in 2021, Chinese customs directly deleted Lithuania from the import and export list.

Lithuania's exports to China plummeted from US$300 million in 2020 to less than US$100 million in 2022, more than 1,300 wood processing plants went bankrupt and 60,000 people were unemployed.

Although the EU supported it verbally, its actual trade volume with China increased by 12%, and Lithuania became a joke in the "democratic camp".

The prices of daily necessities made in China in Lithuanian supermarkets doubled, and the people spontaneously organized an "anti-Taiwan independence" march, demanding that the government "defy to China."

Paraguay is in a very similar situation today to Lithuania. They also rely on agricultural products exports, face the temptation of the Chinese market, and are also used as guns by the United States.

The difference is that China's current economic strength and countermeasures are more tough.

If Paraguay recognizes the one-China principle, establish diplomatic relations with China. It immediately obtained a direct export market of agricultural products of US$5 billion, attracting Chinese companies to invest in green energy, and becoming a new hub for the "Belt and Road" in Latin America.

However, if you continue to rely on the Taiwan authorities, you will face China's sanctions, trade shrinkage, and international isolation, and eventually become the second "banana republic."

After "severing diplomatic relations" with Taiwan in 2023, the trans-ocean railway invested and built by China has soared the GDP growth rate of this Central American country to 4.2%, and the unemployment rate has dropped to 5%.

On the other hand, if Paraguay continues to be obsessed with it, what awaits them will be a vicious cycle of unsalable agricultural products, withdrawal of foreign capital, and decline in people's livelihood.

China does not engage in "value diplomacy" or plays the game of "sphere of influence". It only knows that "mutual benefit and win-win" is the longest way to get along. Paraguay and us have established diplomatic relations for 68 years. From the $2 million aid when the diplomatic relations was established to the current trade volume of more than $5 billion per year, from the aid to the construction of rural schools to the joint development of drought-resistant crops, this friendship is piled up with real money and sincerity.

Those who want to use the "Taiwan independence" issue to engage in political speculation should wake up. The Taiwan issue is the core of China's core interests, the red line of Sino-US relations, and the reverse scale of the 1.4 billion Chinese people.

Lithuania crossed the red line back then, but is still "paying debts". If Paraguay is obsessed with it today, it will only become the second "Lithuania", even worse.