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No wonder Trump said that his patience to mediate the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is rapidly fading.

Looking at the current situation, Russia has not yet completely surrendered to Ukraine, but has broken out with Poland.

If it weren't for Poland being a member of the EU and NATO now, some people would probably doubt whether it would repeat the historical situation of Poland?

There is no way, who made Poland's performance this time unexpected as always?

After the deterioration of relations with Russia, the finger was pointed at a major Eastern power. What exactly happened behind this?

1. Poland enters

It is no exaggeration to say that among EU countries, Poland has the most firm support for Ukraine!

The reason is not difficult to understand.

From a geostrategic perspective, you can open the map and find that Ukraine is a strategic buffer zone between Poland and Russia.

Once Ukraine is completely controlled or destroyed by Russia, Poland is likely to become the next target!

From a historical perspective, the conflict between Poland and Russia has been around for a long time. Although it belongs to the Slavic nation, Russia has participated in the division of Poland many times in history, resulting in its demise.

Before Nazi Germany invaded Poland, when Britain and France asked whether Poland would allow Soviet troops to transit, the Poles responded:

When the Germans come, we may lose our freedom.

But the Russians are coming and will completely enslave our spirit!

Therefore, no matter who fights Russia, Poland will definitely help!

In fact, in the early days of the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in 2022, Poland was one of the few countries that truly provided advanced weapons and equipment.

When Western countries generally began to aid Ukraine, Poland actively participated and transported a large amount of European aid materials to Ukraine.

According to statistics, more than 80% of Western aid to Ukraine currently have to be transferred through Poland.

In addition, Poland has significantly increased its military budget and expanded its military scale!

In 2021, Poland's defense expenditure was only US$12 billion, but by 2022 it has jumped to US$33 billion!

In 2024, Poland's military expenditure accounted for more than 4% of GDP, far higher than the 2% standard set by NATO.

At the same time, Poland continues to increase its support for Ukraine.

Including assisting in training the Ukrainian army, improving its anti-drone combat capabilities, publicly supporting Ukraine's accession to NATO and the EU, and calling on the international community to further increase sanctions against Russia.

If it only ends with this, it is understandable. But what really aroused strong dissatisfaction in Russia was that after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, Poland allowed NATO to deploy defensive forces on its territory.

At present, NATO has 45,000 troops stationed in Poland, and joint military exercises are held from time to time to put pressure on Russia.

It can be said that Poland is currently the country with the deepest involvement in the conflict with Russia and Ukraine among the EU countries.

At the same time, Russia should also realize that Poland has become an important backing for Ukraine and the EU's vanguard of Russia's temptation.

If Poland's provocative behavior cannot be effectively curbed and warned the EU, the direction of the Russian-Ukrainian war will be full of uncertainty.

Therefore, on the evening of September 9, dozens of Russian-made military drones suddenly turned from Ukrainian airspace and entered Poland!

Immediately, the Polish government characterized the incident as "Russian act of aggression"!

So what is the truth about the incident?

2. Game under the drone

First of all, it is certain that this incident was intentional by Russia.

Although Russia later called it an accident, the explanation was obviously unconvincing.

According to media reports, the Russian drone that deviates from the route for hundreds of kilometers this time is either a bait model that is not aggressive or does not carry any weapons at all.

I'm afraid even primary school students can't believe this statement.

So, what is Russia's intention to do this?

First, it is obviously to test the reaction mechanism and defense capabilities of Poland and NATO.

The results show that there are indeed obvious loopholes in the defense systems between Poland and NATO.

Dozens of drones that do not have any substantial threats can quietly break through Poland's dual air defense system.

Even after being discovered, the air interception between Poland and NATO was disappointing.

Most drones reportedly fell on their own due to exhaustion of fuel, one of which even went deep into Poland's inland 300 kilometers, eventually causing Poland to temporarily shut down its own air force.

It can be said that Russia's move was like slapping Poland and NATO in the face several times.

Second, it is also a warning to Poland: today, it can use harmless drones to enter Polish airspace.

If Poland continues to provoke tomorrow, will there be more threatening military operations?

Don’t think that you can rest assured as you have a NATO garrison!

As for Poland’s accusation of Russia of “invasion”?

Russia's unarmed drones entered Poland as an invasion.

Then how should Israel send 15 fighter jets to launch an attack in the Qatar capital?

If we really want to discuss right and wrong, Russia obviously has a more say this time.

Facts have proved that Putin's move is indeed clever.

After the drone incident, Poland condemned Russia's "aggression", but NATO only characterized it as a "provocative act".

As Putin expected, when NATO realizes that Russia still has threatening capabilities, it will inevitably reassess the risks and carefully consider whether to confront Russia in a comprehensive manner?

Obviously, NATO is not willing to take this risk, and they cannot bear the corresponding price.

Especially after Trump repeatedly stated that the United States would not send troops to intervene, it is almost unrealistic to expect European countries to form a coalition into Ukraine to fight Russia.

Even French President Macron, who is actively promoting the European Union's plan, just said that

The coalition forces will only enter Ukraine after the end of the Russian-Ukrainian War to assist in post-war reconstruction.

As for fighting head-on with the Russian army? That was simply a fantasy.

However, Putin may still underestimate Poland's "ability to commit suicide".

Please note that what we are talking about here is not underestimating Poland's military strength, but underestimating the madness of its provocative behavior.

Then what did Poland do?

3. China speaks out

In fact, after the incident of Russian drones entering Poland, Poland should recognize at least two points:

First, if Russia really wants to take military action against Poland, Poland may be unstoppable.

Russia is entirely likely to follow Israel's approach to Iran and use drones to carry out large-scale strikes on Poland.

Second, NATO is not reliable. They are not willing to go to war with Ukraine and Russia, and they are also difficult to break with Poland and Russia.

If Russia continues to launch an attack on Poland with drones, NATO will likely choose to "cold treatment" like this time.

Therefore, if Poland is sensible enough, it should choose to deal with it in a low-key manner.

But Poland chose to continue to provoke in high-profile manner and pointed its finger at a major Eastern power.

On September 12, Poland announced the closure of all land ports to Belarus on the grounds that Russia and Belarus will hold the upcoming "Western-2025" joint military exercise.

This decision directly cut off the transportation channel of the China-Europe freight train!

You should know that as of August this year, 73 routes have been opened to the China-Europe Express, covering more than 70 hub cities in more than 10 countries including Germany and Poland, and radiating to more than 60 cities in China!

This is an important logistics channel between China and Europe, and an important achievement of the "Belt and Road" initiative!

Once the China-Europe freight train is suspended, it will cause huge economic losses to both China and countries along the route!

Therefore, after Poland made this decision, the spokesperson of the Chinese Foreign Ministry immediately stated,

The China-Europe Express is a landmark project of China-Poland and China-Europe cooperation and is in line with the common interests of both sides.

We hope that Poland will "take effective measures to ensure the safe and smooth operation of China-Europe freight trains."

To be honest, China's statement has become very strict.

At the same time, we have to sigh at Poland's ability to "take death".

Because Poland's move has actually had very limited impact on Russia, it may anger China and countries along the China-Europe Express, and even worsen its relations with other member states within the EU.

After all, Germany and other European countries' economies also rely heavily on China-Europe freight trains.

Seeing this, I suddenly understood why some people say that every time Polish demises in history is caused by one's own fault?

With this operation alone, if it weren't for the times that have changed, Moscow would have been in full swing today.

Conclusion:

The Russian-Ukraine War has developed to this day, and this world seems to be becoming more and more incredible.

For example, Poland, as a neighbor of Ukraine, after the outbreak of the war, Poland was under great pressure.

The influx of only millions of Ukrainian refugees into the EU has brought great social and economic burdens to Poland.

However, Poland seemed to be afraid that there would be not enough trouble and would continue to fan the flames, even to end the situation in person.

In addition, provoking another major Eastern country without any need, this operation is indeed very "Poland"!

References:

Interface News: Drone invasion continues to ferment, Poland closes all border ports to Belarus

People's Daily: Chinese representatives call on all parties to maintain restraint in the Polish airspace drone incident - International

Beijing Daily: Ministry of Foreign Affairs: I hope Poland will take effective measures to ensure the safe and smooth passage of China-Europe freight trains