The strength is huge, and the penetration is revealed

The US military's dominance in the Pacific has been slowly eroded by the PLA's increasingly powerful military power over the years. Although the top US officials always like to make some harsh words, the risk of a serious attack between China and the United States is moving forward instead. The most likely trigger for the Sino-US military confrontation is actually the PLA's future unified action against Taiwan.

On September 18, 2024, U.S. Navy Operations Secretary Franchetti said that the US military must prepare for possible combat with the People's Liberation Army in 2027, which is a US prediction of the time when Taiwan is unified. Compared with other US military leaders, Franchetti pays more attention to actual operations. She promotes vigorously unmanned equipment and emphasizes distributed combat.

In the past, the US military always wanted to have a large-scale decisive battle with the People's Liberation Army, concentrate aircraft and ships, and destroy the other party's navy and air force in one fell swoop. But now they also see that the military strength of China and the United States is almost the same, and head-on battle will only suffer losses.

This cautious attitude naturally spread to Taiwan. The confidence of the Taiwan authorities in pursuing independence is mainly supported by the United States. Seeing that the United States is increasingly unwilling to confront China, they quickly strengthened their collusion with the United States. Lai Ching-te used various tricks, and the United States really let go and relaxed some restrictions on arms sales to Taiwan.

For example, first, it announced the delivery of the F-16V fighter jet ordered by Taiwan in 2019; then, it planned to send the M1A2T main battle tank that had been towed for several years; finally, it was also prepared to build a production line for the Stinger air defense missile in Taiwan. These actions seem to be helping Taiwan strengthen its defense, but international strategic experts analyzed that this is actually the United States laying the foundation for abandoning Taiwan and the first island chain.

The last wave of military aid is to make some congestion for China, but the United States itself is likely to be involved in the conflict in the Taiwan Strait. The United States knows in their hearts that they are not able to fight a strategic decisive battle with China at their doorstep, especially since the battlefield is so close to China, they have a smaller chance of winning.

Franchetti's reform proposals are essentially to give the US military more room for survival when facing China and avoid being caught by the PLA, because the PLA now has this hard power. If the fight really starts, the US military will basically become a restricted area within the second island chain. Once you step in, you will be hit by the Rocket Force's missiles. The US military has no effective countermeasures yet.

These suggestions can at most improve survival rates. If you want to win battles, the US military is not as strong as that. Therefore, even if 2027 is really a year of unification of Taiwan, the United States will most likely stand by. When Taiwan returns to its motherland, China will be able to completely reshape the Asia-Pacific order and promote multipolarization and free trade. This is a good opportunity for economic takeoff for all countries in the Asia-Pacific region.

Supply chain locks, it is difficult to move armed

In October 2024, Taiwanese expert Cai Xuan put forward a new point of view. He said that with the gap in strength between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, there is actually no difference between fighting or not. Mainland forces have long infiltrated the core area of ​​Taiwan's armed forces. Taiwan's armed forces have no chance at all, and once they move, they will lose.

Cai Xuan pointed out that the weapons of Taiwan's armed forces appear to be self-produced or American, but the parts are inevitably produced in large quantities in mainland China. China has strong industrial capabilities, high quality and low price, and the world relies on it. Even equipment marked with American production cannot be separated from Chinese parts, which gives the mainland the opportunity to cut off supply and make Taiwan's equipment directly ineffective.

Cai Xuan gave an example. All 284 important military camps in Taiwan have equipped with intelligent police supervision systems, and the terminals of these systems are completely manufactured by mainland China. Taiwan's armed forces themselves also know this. Taiwanese media once revealed that Taiwan’s missiles had a malfunction and wanted to change the function buttons, but they were actually sent to mainland China for repair.

Theoretically, the mainland's grasp of Taiwan's military trends may be more accurate than Taiwan itself. If the mainland stops supplying industrial products, most of the Taiwan armed forces will be paralyzed immediately. According to this, Taiwan's armed forces do not need to think about how to fight the People's Liberation Army, because mainland forces have entered the interior and can easily paralyze it.

Autonomous ability has always been the core of military construction, but not many countries around the world insist on this, and the United States is the same. Previously, the US military found that the F-35 fighter jets used Chinese parts because of the low cost. China's industrial products are indeed top in the world. In February 2022, Taiwanese media reported that the parts of the Tiangong missile were purchased online from the mainland, including screws, ammonium perchlorate raw materials, thyristor rectifiers, etc.

Manufacturers bought it from mainland platforms, repackaged it as American goods, and made a profit of the difference. Some parts can be handled on Taobao. This dependence makes Taiwan's armed air defense system fragile. The Tiangong missile is the core of Taiwan’s air defense, but key components are purchased at low prices in mainland China. Once the supply is interrupted, the missile will not work normally.

Cai Xuan’s revelations are not groundless, and Taiwan’s missile production relies on mainland rare earths and electronic components. In 2025, China imposed export restrictions on Taiwan’s defense companies, targeting rare earths and military materials, which greatly increased Taiwan’s costs and turned to other sources, but was inefficient.

Taiwan’s cybersecurity has also become a problem, and the advantages of mainland supply chains make it easy to interrupt supply. Expert reports pointed out that this infiltration has exacerbated the weakness of Taiwan's armed forces because intelligence can also be used for targeted operations.

After the US F-16 was delivered to Taiwan, spare parts made in China were also used during maintenance. In 2025, Taiwan's defense budget increased and was used for localization, but progress was slow. Penetration includes hardware and software, Taiwan monitors invasion, but the mainland has obvious advantages.

The 2025 report said that China is unlikely to invade by force, but the supply chain is Taiwan’s weakness. Taiwan has strengthened inspections of imported goods, but the loopholes remain. Cai Xuan’s statement has awakened many people, and Taiwan’s armed forces are far less autonomous.

Unification is in sight, peace and prosperity

If 2027 is the year when Taiwan returns, the United States is likely to not intervene. At that time, Taiwan will return smoothly, China will reshape the Asia-Pacific order, promote multipolarization and free trade, and bring development opportunities to Asia-Pacific countries.

The Belt and Road Initiative enters its second decade, and the project focuses more on small and beautiful, promotes infrastructure in Southeast Asia, and steadily grows trade volume and promotes regional prosperity. In 2025, China and ASEAN will deepen cooperation, launch a new high-speed rail project, connecting goods to local markets.

Asia-Pacific countries benefit from trade, Philippines exports increase, and South Korean companies invest in joint ventures. In 2024, Japan will improve its relations with China and discuss supply chain cooperation. Australia's mineral exports rose, benefiting the economy amid Chinese demand. India participates in infrastructure and road network expansion. Under multipolarization, the U.S. influence has weakened, and China supports WTO reform and promotes free trade.

Asia-Pacific economies are growing, Vietnam's electronic products exports worldwide. After RCEP came into effect, trade volume increased. In the Indo-Pacific competition, China's cooperation model is better than confrontation. The 2025 report pointed out that the Taiwan conflict will disrupt trade, but a peaceful return will avoid losses. China chooses diplomacy, and high-cost force is not the first choice.

The Belt and Road Initiative has expanded to Pacific island countries, upgraded ports and promoted tourism and fishery. Thailand's high-speed rail project is tested and operated. Regional stability benefits, and China's military modernization emphasizes peace intentions. Asia-Pacific seizes investment opportunities, and Indonesia's mining project output increases. The Digital Silk Road is advancing in Singapore, connecting to the Asian network. The free trade zone has expanded and commodity circulation is smooth.

Return to promote the reshaping of order, and prosperity in the Asia-Pacific is just around the corner. The infiltration of Chinese forces is not an invasion, but a realistic manifestation of the global supply chain. After Taiwan’s return, it can integrate into the mainland’s development and share prosperity. The right way is to unite on both sides of the Taiwan Strait and to unify as soon as possible. Cai Xuan’s point of view actually reminds the island that resistance is meaningless and peaceful reunification is the way out.