This is a very important and ambitious question. Overall, the Belt and Road Initiative has had a profound, multi-dimensional and strategic impact on China’s economic development. It is not only a simple foreign investment and project contracting, but also one of the key driving forces for the transformation and upgrading of China's economic development model.

We can analyze its influence from the following levels:

1. Direct and short-term positive impact (“hard” connectivity level)

1. Digest excess production capacity and stimulate related industries:

· Infrastructure industry: In the early stages of the initiative, a large number of infrastructure projects such as railways, highways, ports, and power stations were launched overseas, which directly boosted the export of China's steel, cement, building materials, construction machinery and other industries, and effectively alleviated the pressure of overcapacity in some domestic industries at that time.

· Equipment manufacturing: China's high-end manufacturing products such as high-speed rail, nuclear power, communication equipment, and heavy machinery took this opportunity to "go global" on a large scale and gained huge overseas markets.

2. Promote foreign trade and investment:

· Smooth trade: By improving the infrastructure of countries along the route, logistics costs are reduced and trade between China and the countries along the “Belt and Road” is promoted. China has become the largest trading partner of many countries along the route.

· Capital export: Chinese enterprises are encouraged to invest overseas, establish production bases overseas, develop markets, and integrate global resources. At the same time, it promotes the use of RMB in cross-border trade and investment and assists the internationalization of RMB.

3. Ensure energy and resource security:

· By investing in and constructing oil and gas pipelines, ports and mining projects in Central Asia, the Middle East, Africa and other regions, China has obtained more stable and diversified energy and raw material supply channels, reduced its reliance on a single maritime transportation line, and enhanced national economic security.

2. Long-term and strategic far-reaching impact (“soft” connectivity and system level)

1. Build a new pattern of opening up to the outside world:

· From “bringing in” to “going global”: The “One Belt, One Road” initiative marks China’s shift from its past openness model that focused on attracting foreign investment to a new stage in which it actively participates in global resource allocation and shapes the external environment.

· Optimizing the layout of opening to the outside world: It promotes China's opening to the west, strengthens land connections with landlocked countries in Central Asia, West Asia, Europe, etc., changes the past over-reliance on the Eastern Maritime Corridor, and forms a new trend of comprehensive opening up of "linkage between land and sea at home and abroad, and mutual assistance between the east and west".

2. Promote industrial transformation and upgrading:

· Climbing up the value chain: As labor-intensive industries shift to Southeast Asia, South Asia and other "Belt and Road" countries due to rising domestic costs, this objectively forces China's domestic industries to upgrade to technology-intensive and capital-intensive industries and move towards the high end of the global value chain.

· Spawning new business formats: The normal operation of China-Europe freight trains has promoted the development of new business formats such as cross-border e-commerce, supply chain finance, and overseas warehouses.

3. Enhance the right to speak in the formulation of international rules:

· By leading or participating in multilateral financial institutions such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and the Silk Road Fund, China has begun to play a more important role in global financial governance.

· In terms of project standards, technical specifications, financing models, etc., promote the "going out" of Chinese standards and gradually transform from a passive recipient of rules to a co-setter of rules.

4. Promote coordinated development of domestic regions:

· Xinjiang is positioned as the "core area of ​​the Silk Road Economic Belt", and western provinces such as Yunnan and Guangxi have become "radiation centers for South Asia and Southeast Asia". This has brought unprecedented development opportunities to China's vast western region and helped narrow the development gap between the east and west.

3. Challenges and potential risks

The influence of “One Belt, One Road” is not all positive. It is also accompanied by a series of challenges and risks, which need to be dealt with carefully:

1. Geopolitical risks: Some projects are misinterpreted by Western countries as "geostrategic tools" or "debt traps" and face political resistance and distrust.

2. Debt and financial risks: Some countries along the Belt and Road have heavy debt burdens and are at risk of loan defaults, which may cause losses to Chinese financial institutions and investors.

3. Project operation and security risks: Overseas projects face local political unrest, policy changes, cultural conflicts, terrorism and other security threats, making operation and management difficult.

4. Economic benefits and sustainability: Some projects may have poor economic benefits and long investment return cycles, requiring a balance between short-term interests and long-term strategic value. Environmental protection and social responsibility issues have also received increasing attention.

Summarize

The influence of “One Belt, One Road” on China’s economic development is fundamental and strategic.

· In the short term, it is a booster for the demand side, providing impetus for economic growth by exporting capital and production capacity.

· In the long term, it is an engine of change on the supply side, promoting high-quality development of the Chinese economy by opening up new markets, optimizing resource allocation, and forcing industrial upgrading.

· From an overall perspective, it reshapes the way China connects with the world economy, embeds China's development more deeply into the global system, and in the process attempts to build a new global economic governance order that is more in line with China's interests and vision.

It can be said that the success of the “Belt and Road Initiative” will be directly related to whether China can successfully overcome the “middle-income trap” and occupy a favorable position in future global competition. It is a grand experiment with both opportunities and risks, and its ultimate impact is still evolving and deepening.