In the Philippine Presidential Palace, Marcos talked endlessly during the highly anticipated State of the Union speech. When the South China Sea issue was mentioned, his voice suddenly dropped by octave.

This president, who once shouted "defend the sovereignty of the South China Sea" and frequently named China, now seems to have been pressed for the mute button - avoiding the word "China" throughout the process, and even the word "South China" has become a taboo. He used the vague expression "improving defense ability when threatening the power of authority" to pass by lightly, as if he was playing a political word game.

Change begins with a shameful trip to the White House. Three days ago, Marcos flew to the United States excitedly, hoping to exchange "hardness against China" for Trump's promise of military aid. But Trump poured cold water on his face: "I'm not afraid to see China get along well with the Philippines" - the implication is that don't delay my business with China.

01 The White House is humiliated, Trump's "political abandonment"

Marcos has two ambitions for this trip: to strive for US tariff reductions in exchange for military protection umbrellas, so that he can continue to fight against China in the South China Sea. But reality gave him two loud slaps.

The so-called "tariff discount" given by Trump simply reduced the 20% tariff threatened in April to 19%. Behind this tiny 1%, there are even more demanding clauses: the Philippines must open up the zero-tariff market to the United States, and is also banned from signing new trade agreements with "sensitive countries" - directly pointing to China.

The Philippines was in an instant. Former Senate President Subili denounced the agreement as "using the Philippines as an ATM", and the agricultural community warned that zero tariffs would destroy local industries. What embarrasses Marcos even more is that the United States imposes only 15% tariffs on Japan, which is 4 percentage points lower than giving the Philippines a "loyal ally".

When Marcos tried to fight for security commitments, Trump understated that fatal statement: "China-US relations are good." This sentence completely exposes the US's calculations - the Philippines is just a pawn of the game between great powers and is used to disrupt the South China Sea when needed, but it must not affect the core interests of the United States.

02 Prison storm, Duterte's "Return of the King"

Just when Marcos hit a wall at the White House, another explosive news spread in Philippine politics: Former President Duterte, who was detained by the International Criminal Court (ICC), may have been released secretly.

When the reporter asked Duterte's daughter and current Vice President Sarah for confirmation, she replied meaningfully: "I know the situation, but I won't answer." This ambiguous attitude actually confirmed the rumors. Previously, ICC judges had serious differences over the Duterte case, and some people bluntly stated that the case was "a political tool of the Marcos administration."

If Duterte returns, it will completely rewrite the political situation in the Philippines. This iron-fisted former president has a deep foundation in the military and police system, and his family still holds real power in Davao City. What's even more dangerous is that Duterte has already spoken out to "clean up everyone."

Marcos has smelled the crisis. While urgently doubling the allowances for Philippine soldiers, he changed his words and said he was willing to "coordinate the return of Lao Du to the country." Even his own sister, Senator Ime, publicly cut the mat and refused to support his arrest of Duterte.

03 Sharp turn, Marcos's "Silent Diplomacy"

In the midst of internal and external difficulties, Marcos staged a dramatic change in the State of the Union address. He used to be named every time he mentioned the South China Sea, but now he only said that the Philippines wants to "be friends with everyone, not enemies with anyone."

This low-key is described by the media as "the mute key is pressed." But mute does not mean shutdown. As soon as the speech ended, his Defense Minister Teodoro immediately jumped out and claimed that he would "focus on external defense" and "boycott China."

The Marcos administration still has unrealistic fantasies. During his visit to the United States, he insisted that the United States clearly apply the US-Philippines Joint Defense Treaty to the South China Sea, and also promote the deployment of US military inter-military missiles and the construction of ammunition bases at home. This fence-mounting strategy exposes its fundamental dilemma: it wants to use the power of the United States to put pressure on China, but also fears that it will become a pawn.

Compared with Southeast Asian neighbors, the Philippines' strategic choices seem particularly poor. Indonesia and Vietnam are both good at both China and the United States: Vietnam accepts American investment while maintains trade with China; Indonesia not only buys American fighter jets, but also participates in China's "Belt and Road". Marcos' desperate bets have caused Philippine banana and coconut exports to China to plummet, and the waters of fishermen's operations to shrink.

04 Drawing the sword in the South China Sea, China's "action diplomacy"

Faced with the Philippines' capriciousness, China has shown a clear red line. On the day of Marcos' speech, the Southern Theater Command of China launched a practical combat readiness police patrol on Huangyan Island.

The 052D destroyer and 054A frigate form a steel formation. The J-16 and Su-30 fighter jets carrying PL-10 fighting bombs cut through the sky, and the sword-like H-6K bomber cruised with the Eagle Strike-12 anti-ship missile. This deployment not only shocked the Philippines, but also focused on the US F-35 and aircraft carrier combat groups that may intervene.

Diplomatic rhetoric is equally tough. A spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry said bluntly: The Philippines' military cooperation with other countries "can neither solve the problem nor scare China." This sentence directly touched the pain of the Marcos administration - when he claimed in his speech that he "indebted" to the United States, it was equivalent to acknowledging the strategic dependence of the Philippines.

China has long seen through the essence of this farce. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs pointed out the key: the Philippines relies on the United States in security, but geographical reality determines that it cannot avoid dealing with China. After all, fishermen have to eat and fruits have to be exported, and these cannot be solved by missiles.

05 Power reshuffle, the Philippines' "family war"

Marcos' rapid turn reflects the deeper family game in Philippine politics. His power struggle with the Duterte family has entered a life-and-death situation.

Sarah Duterte finally set his sword after lying dormant for three years. She publicly revealed Marcos's anti-China insider: "The so-called pro-US is likely to be just someone venting his dissatisfaction with a certain country, which is for public power and private use." She bluntly stated that when her father was in power, China-Philippines trade was stable, Philippine fruits were sold well in China, and the people lived and worked in peace and contentment; while Marcos's pro-US policy led to "the trade volume of enterprises plummeted and fishermen were unemployed."

The Duterte family's counterattack was more than just remarks. As vice president, Sarah has spoken out that she has "followed the times to take over the power of the president." There are many precedents of military changes seizing power in the history of the Philippines, and Duterte's appeal in the military and police system is far beyond Marcos.

The showdown between the two major families will determine the fate of the Philippines. Continue to follow Marcos pro-US? It may become cannon fodder for a big country to play. Turn to Sarah to ease relations with China? There may be opportunities for practical cooperation. At present, Marcos' public opinion approval rating has fallen below 30%, while the Duterte family's support rating has risen against the trend.

Marcos' confession that "the Philippines owes the United States" in his State of the Union address has become the ironic footnote of this political gamble. When Duterte's supporters shouted for release outside the Hague court, and when Chinese warships set silver wave marks on Huangyan Island, the president suddenly discovered that his bet on "allies" only gave 19% tariffs, while the enemy list was full of names of compatriots.

On the streets of Manila, protesters burned copies of the US-Philippines agreement, and farmers shouted, "We want jobs, don't have empty checks." At this moment, Marcos may be repeatedly chewing on Trump's light "Don't mind" - when he bet on the national fortune as a "famous letter", he didn't know that in Trump's eyes, it was just a card that could be abandoned at any time.