These two topics have paid a lot of attention recently and seem to be irrelevant, but the key is that they are independent and can be said to be realistic.

Regarding overcapacity, many articles in the town have mentioned it before.

There are two main points:

First, how to correctly understand China's "overcapacity" and distinguish between China and the West's different cognitions.

The second is how to manage "overcapacity".

The former is analyzed in the sixth impression of "China's practice is far ahead of theory, and theoretical researchers and practitioners in some fields need to keep up as soon as possible."

China and the West have different understandings of "overcapacity" and this is determined by the different natures and national conditions of China and the West. As a latecomer, China has achieved national development through self-reliance and also allowed all citizens to live a better life. This is a common requirement of socialism and Chinese traditional concepts; while the West started its business through exploitation and plunder. Its capitalist nature does not need to improve the lives of the whole people, but covers the exploitative nature with the so-called "freedom" and "vote owners" and only needs to serve the interests of the upper-level minority.

So as Xiaozhen summarized in "" and "": The key difference between China and the United States' development path is that China advocates scale first, while the United States advocates profit first.

This is a completely different development model. The United States serves capital. To allow capital to obtain the maximum profit, it must abandon the low-value links to obtain the maximum profit. Therefore, American companies such as Apple have adopted the "global factory-free" model, which greatly reduces cost expenditures and increases profit margins, thereby gaining the favor of the US capital market and winning a higher market value.

But China is different. It must base itself on meeting the strong needs of 1.4 billion people, and it is impossible to count on other countries around the world. For example, developed countries such as the United States are aimed at maximizing profits, which will inevitably limit production and refuse to reduce prices, thereby maintaining maximum profits, which is destined to fail to meet the needs of 1.4 billion Chinese people. Take mobile phones and cars as an example. If it were more than ten years ago that the most basic car would have to be sold for more than 100,000 yuan, how can we achieve the popularity of cars? If Apple is the dominant player, how can all Chinese people use mobile phones in the smart era?

Only when China has the dominance of the mobile phone, automobile and other industries, through technology and management improvements, it greatly reduces production costs, increases output, and significantly reduces commodity prices, can all Chinese people make a general profit.

Now you only need tens of thousands of yuan to buy a very good car, forcing foreign brands to give in and reduce prices. The same Japanese car is priced several times that of China in the United States; mobile phones are more representative. If you don’t pursue brands, a smartphone worth hundreds of yuan will be enough.

From the perspective of meeting actual usage needs, the monthly income is 3,000 yuan, a mobile phone, 6,000 yuan or 600 yuan. Can it be the same?

The West and those affected by the West say "overcapacity" every day. The essence is to only aim at a small number of people and not see the hundreds of millions of middle- and low-income citizens. Indeed, the income of hundreds of millions of people in the future is still too low, which requires more effort, but don’t these people want to drive a car? If these people's income can be increased, will the current production capacity really be enough?

From China to the world, with developed countries and China removed, there are nearly 6 billion people in the world. Don’t these people want to live a better life? Of course, I want to think about it in my dreams.

From the attitude towards other countries' markets, you can also feel the differences in different thinking between China and the West.

In the consciousness of people who are accustomed to Western thinking, they look down on developing countries at all. They think they are poor, have small markets, and have weak consumption power. They always call the European and American markets, and even look down on the Russian market. The town exchanged with the financial circle. The town proposed to pay attention to the huge economic interests between China and Russia in the future, which caused doubts. The other party believed that if Russia's strategic value and security value were still understandable, but what economic value does Russia have, it felt that the market was too small.

But in fact, the import and export volume of goods between China and Russia has reached nearly half of that between China and the United States. Considering that China's exports to the United States are a considerable part of them come from foreign companies, and the high-value link is occupied by foreign companies such as US funds; and in China, China has an advantage in Sino-Russia trade; in addition, the United States has a huge surplus from China's service trade.

Therefore, from the perspective of China's profitability, the economic and trade exchanges between China and Russia have reached more than half of the direct economic and trade exchanges between China and the United States. After all, Russia is also one of the great powers and developed countries. The lean camel is larger than a horse. Russia has 144 million people, which is 40% of the United States' population. At present, Europe and the United States blockade of Russia means that China can occupy more Russian market share. From the simplest logic, we can feel the huge market value of Russia, not to mention that Russia will also grasp the two century-level favorable benefits of the Far East and Arctic routes in the future.

Those who hold Chinese consciousness will never underestimate the larger "global southern" market outside Western countries, and there is already ironclad evidence that in China's import and export trade, countries along the "Belt and Road" account for more than half. Compared with the shrinking markets in Europe and the United States, the demand for "global southern" countries is still growing rapidly.

Because of this basic fact, the town wrote an article in April, suggesting that it seize the strategic opportunity of the United States' tariff war and trade war, accelerate the transformation of China's international trade structure, and transfer more import quotas from the United States to developing countries. This can not only put pressure on the US and force the US to compromise and concessions, but also greatly improve the economic conditions of developing countries and strengthen China's ties with the "global southern" countries. These countries can increase imports from China after they get money through exports to China.

Since the "Global South" countries lag behind China in the development stage, the first thing they need to improve after having money is their living standards, which are the daily necessities, household appliances and other commodities that are most vulnerable to the impact of the trade war. Therefore, China's exports lost by the United States will definitely be able to make up for them from developing countries, and they even have to worry about the surplus this year reaching a record high.

With the upgrading of China's science and technology and industries, China's position in the global value chain has continued to rise, and its relations with Western countries such as Europe and the United States have undergone drastic changes and have begun to become a direct competitor. For example, in the automotive field, China is taking away market share in Germany, Japan, the United States and South Korea.

Therefore, it is not European and American countries that are more complementary to China's economic structure, but developing countries.

Based on the above, China has a understanding of "overcapacity".

The problem of "overcapacity" exists objectively, but it is more phased. In the long run, the production capacity is not only overcapacity, but is seriously insufficient, and cannot meet the strong demand of 1.4 billion people in China and even 6 billion developing countries around the world. With China's national strength and military strength, it will inevitably accelerate the transformation of global order, and there is hope that the world will become more peaceful and develop into the theme of future mankind, that is, to truly realize a community with a shared future for mankind and everyone will become builders.

In our familiar words, don’t forget that one of the basic characteristics of communism is that “productivity is extremely developed and material abundant”. Compared with such a society, is there really overcapacity in production capacity now?

In terms of how to deal with "overcapacity", it is precisely because of the Chinese thinking that this is a phased problem, and the long-term problem that needs to be solved is not overcapacity but insufficient. Therefore, China's handling method is by no means a strong government intervention advocated by the Western market, but rather maintain restraint and fully respect market laws. The government only defines boundaries and rules to allow the market to adjust itself. See "

Therefore, Xiaozhen said that the current debate on "overcapacity" is still a question of whether the ideas and ideas are independent and seeking truth from facts.

This is even more so in the dilemma of liberal arts.

At present, the country is promoting the "building of an independent knowledge system for Chinese philosophy and social sciences". Last week, an important branch of this system, "Research on the Construction of an Independent Knowledge System for Chinese Public Administration", held a opening discussion meeting.

Xiaozhen has already talked about how to understand the "independent knowledge system of Chinese philosophy and social sciences".

On April 1, on Knowledge Planet, the town also specifically talked about how to build an independent knowledge system. The full text is 5,500 words and is divided into four parts: how to understand, specific direction, current difficulties, and how to build. This article is placed in the second article. You can also jump to the planet to read directly:

In this planetary article, the town has summarized three issues in the current liberal arts field: one is to study fragmentation and low-quality; the second is to be ignorant, swallow everything whole, and be eager to achieve success; the third is to study more diachronicity and less synchronicity.

The town thinks there is another more essential problem: the independence of thought is reflected in many experts and professors in humanities and social sciences, and the general problem is the preset position.

This position often comes from the brainwashing of Western ideological and theoretical ideas. Any humanities and social science theory is formed based on a specific environment. Western theories will inevitably be unacceptable to the local environment when they come to China. This is summarized by the Party’s decades of struggles, and the localization of theory must be carried out, that is, the "two combinations" between Marxism and Chinese practice.

China's fundamental Marxism needs to be localized, so why don't other Western theories based on capitalism need it? Do you really believe in the so-called "universal values" advocated by the United States?

The Russian-Ukrainian problem is to look at the mirror of demons, and to see clearly whether you have the ability to think independently and whether you can respect basic objective facts.

No matter what emotional bias or position is, it needs to be based on respecting objective facts.

But unfortunately, many people have preset positions. In order to prove that their preset positions are correct, they deliberately ignore a large number of basic facts and carefully select those that can support their arguments. The result is that they get deeper and deeper, and it is difficult to turn back at this time. Especially those who make public remarks have already gathered a large number of followers with the same viewpoint because of their remarks. Even if they understand that they are wrong, they must make mistakes to the end.

From the perspective of interests, such people who ignore objective facts and are led by their own preset positions are also very high-quality "leeks". They seem to be known as "independent thinking", but in fact they have long lost their ability to think about themselves and are easily harvested. Therefore, some people on the Internet may not be unaware of the truth, but for the sake of traffic and interests, they continue to follow the audience.

Give two examples. Xiaozhen mentioned in "" that a retired old professor at Tsinghua University studied sociology and often expressed some views on social economy. However, since Trump won the election, almost everything has become a criticism of Russia and Trump, and there are many outrageous remarks.

For example, by reposting a friend, he said that Israel's occupation provided many public services to the Palestinians and improved the living standards of the locals. He also said that the Israeli army should try its best to prevent Palestinian civilians from accidentally hurting Palestinian civilians, accusing Hamas of using his own civilians as a meat shield; he also accused European countries of not supporting Ukraine, saying that North Korea could provide more than 10,000 soldiers to support Russia, and any European country could contribute 10,000 to any country, and could organize hundreds of thousands of people. This is a typical military blindness.

It was later said that in recent battles, Russia attacked Ukraine, and Russia suffered several times more casualties than Ukraine. This is no longer a matter of knowledge, but a basic common sense logic. What I said is no longer self-consistent. If Ukraine can still cause several times of casualties in the face of Russia's active attack by this time in 2025, why worry about Ukraine's failure and ask European countries to organize a large army to support it? You should know that in the past three years, Ukraine's conscription has been much larger than Russia.

This is the problem brought by the preset position. The deeper and deeper you get, and you can't extricate yourself.

Another Internet big V is even more typical. When the Russian-Ukrainian conflict broke out, he believed that Russia would lose. The town speculated that this may be out of dissatisfaction with Russia at the beginning, or it may be to attract traffic. However, the development of the situation is becoming increasingly unfavorable to Ukraine. So from the first year of demonstration that Russia will lose from a war perspective, it gradually changed to a social psychological analysis, and even said that "it is inevitable because Russia uses Korean soldiers." The original words refer to Russia's use of a minion army, which means that its country's military strength is insufficient.

This is very unwise. Because even if you write articles publicly and have many followers, the creator himself must not think that he is an omniscient and omnipotent God. It is normal to make mistakes. If you make mistakes, just correct them. What's the big deal? Why do you have to package yourself into a good god forever? This will only build yourself up, are you tired?

What's more, the objective world is actually developing and changing. In the past, it is accurate to judge the objective environment and change as well. For example, in the Russian-Ukrainian war, the town was wrong at the beginning. After the war started, the town judged that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict would end soon, and it was indeed over at that time. Russia and Ukraine had already negotiated, resolved peacefully, and released the negotiation time node within 72 hours predicted by the town.

However, unexpected variables appeared, and the former British Prime Minister ran to Ukraine to incite Ukraine to continue fighting.

But no matter what, a wrong judgment is a wrong one. Afterwards, based on the new situation, the town quickly made a new judgment, believing that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict would inevitably turn into a protracted war, which would take at least three years to fight, and Russia would inevitably win, and Ukraine would likely face the ending of being scored by three points.

Similar things are, for example, if the article "" is wrong, it will be corrected. If there is a change in cognition, it will be adjusted publicly. What are you afraid of?

This is another deep-seated issue in the field of liberal arts. Unlike science and engineering, there are very clear standards for right and wrong, liberal arts tend to be subjective evaluation, which means that the recognition of higher-level people is the most important, and it is easier to form mountains and circles.

Although science and engineering also have mountains and circles, which also affect resource allocation, if a person is very awesome, he overcomes problems that others cannot solve, and in the face of objective results, everyone must be convinced, and those who don’t accept it will become clowns.

There is no such concern in the liberal arts, and it is okay to explain it no matter how you explain it. Face is very important. As long as you are stubborn and don’t bow your head, it is not a complete loss. At least you will retreat to your comfort zone. But if you publicly admit that you are wrong, you will have to bear the pressure. The higher you praise yourself before, the more you fall, the more miserable you will fall.

So the town stayed on the ground with a steadfast desire to sit down and lie down. It was made clear from the beginning that the town was still learning, so there must be omissions. Please correct me and learn from each other. If you are wrong, you are wrong, so what can you do? What's more, the town's judgment accuracy is quite high, and it is rare to judge incorrectly. It is worth opening a single article to publicize it. This means that the town can improve its cognitive model and go a step further.

This is "will be happy when you hear mistakes." It is so rare that modern society wants to hear objective criticism, and it is too late to be happy.

Some readers also ask when will the independent knowledge system of philosophy and social sciences be realized?

This is unhurried, because the liberal arts do not have objective standards and rely more on higher authoritative affirmations. Therefore, in order to achieve autonomy, middle-aged people need to replace elderly people and new people, and they need to replace them from generation to generation, and gradually become autonomous.

This process will not be too slow, because China's practice and development are too fast, and liberal arts are the standard product of the dominant country. When China becomes the world's number one in all aspects, not only will more and more Chinese people affirm China from an ideological and theoretical perspective, but a large number of foreigners will also join in.

It should be noted that those who tell Chinese stories are not necessarily Chinese; those who engage in liberal arts work are not necessarily liberal arts students; those who engage in media communication are not necessarily professional students in news and media.

Just as the town participated in an exchange at the School of Journalism at Tsinghua University, the founder of the True Story Project was invited to give a speech. The professor at the School of Journalism told the newly-written students that it is difficult to find a job now, and there are many competitors from non-professional classes. You must improve your writing skills. If you can’t even compare with others, what’s the foundation for your career? How can you find a job?

The general trend will be completed and it will be destroyed.