The shock of 350km/h: A change in cooperation ideas on a high-speed rail journey

At noon on September 2, on the platform of Tianjin West Station, the figure of Iranian President Pezekichiyang was particularly eye-catching.

Unlike other foreign heads of state who came to participate in the 93rd military parade, he did not choose a special car or special plane to transfer, but walked into the carriage of the China High-speed Railway.

This train from Tianjin to Beijing will compress the originally two hours to half an hour at a maximum speed of 350 kilometers per hour.

After the train started, Pezexiqiyang looked out the window from time to time, and looked down at the itinerary in his hand. The entourage around him was still showing him information about the operating mileage of China's high-speed railway exceeding 40,000 kilometers.

No one expected that this short dozens of minutes of experience would become a new starting point for China-Iran infrastructure cooperation.

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During the bilateral talks between China and Iran that afternoon, Pezeshiqiyang opened the way: "I hope China can help us realize national railway interconnection."

This "small request" was not a whim. As early as July this year, the chairman of Iran's state-owned railway company made a special trip to China and signed a 1,000-kilometer railway electrification contract with China Railway Corporation.

This time, Pezexiqiyang expanded the scope of cooperation from one line to one network.

Iran's traffic dilemma: 60km-hour "golden main line" and hundreds of millions of dollars in losses

It can be seen that Pezeshiziyang seems a little anxious, but this is not unreasonable. Iran is facing a lot of traffic difficulties now.

In Iran, the railway from Tehran to Mashhad is called the "golden trunk line". It is the capital on one end and the religious holy land on the other end. It transports millions of pilgrims every year and also carries 40% of the country's agricultural products.

But this key line has now become a "burden".

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The maximum speed of the train on this route is only 60 kilometers per hour, which is slower than the ordinary green-skinned train in China. It takes 12 hours to take the train from Tehran to Mashhad.

Every year during the pilgrimage season, the carriages are crowded with people, and some even have to sit in the aisle all night.

For farmers, this line is even more of a "nightmare". When transporting cherries and grapes in summer, the fruits will sway in the stuffy carriage for 12 hours, and half of them will rot and can only be sold at a low price.

According to statistics from the Iranian agricultural department, the loss of agricultural products on this line alone exceeds US$300 million per year.

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The situation on the highway is also bad. Iran originally planned to build an 840-kilometer expressway before the end of March 2024, increasing the total mileage of the national expressway from 2,000 kilometers to 10,000 kilometers, but the reality is discounted.

Currently, 400 kilometers of highways in Iran are the "bottleneck": in the sections of the Elbools Mountains, there are only one lanes, and large trucks have to wait for more than ten minutes if they are wrong.

Some bridges built in the last century can only be limited to 20 tons due to aging, and heavy trucks will be blocked as soon as they pass, and the longest time it takes four or five hours.

What's even more terrible is that Iran cannot afford to solve these problems.

Affected by the US and Western sanctions, Iran's oil export income is difficult to exchange for foreign exchange, and imported railway equipment and technology are restricted.

It takes US$20 billion to transform the track and signal system of the Tehran-Mashhad railway alone, which is almost astronomical for Iran, which has tight foreign exchange reserves and domestic inflation rate exceeding 40%.

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The "confidence" of China-Iran cooperation: from 1,600 kilometers of railway to "oil for infrastructure"

China-Iran cooperation in the railway field has long been laid.

In June this year, a 1,600-kilometer-long Sino-Iran commercial railway was officially opened to traffic. This line departed from China, passed through Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Afghanistan, and after entering Iran, it was divided into two routes, one to the Port of Abbas in the Persian Gulf, and the other way through Türkiye to Europe.

The 300 containers carried by the first train were transported from Xi'an, China to Iran in just 12 days, which was 20 days faster than the maritime route.

If Iran's domestic railways can be connected in the future, Chinese goods can pass through Iran and into Europe directly by land, and the cost can be reduced by 15%. The Salges-Lazi railway project signed in July gave Iran a reassurance.

This 1,000-kilometer line must not only be electrified, but also be changed to a dual-track. After completion, the annual cargo transportation capacity can be increased from 5 million tons to 15 million tons, which is equivalent to the repair of two additional freight dedicated lines.

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China can help Iran more than just technology and lines.

In response to Iran's financial difficulties, China has proposed a "oil for infrastructure" plan. Iran can use the oil it will mine in the future to pay for project payments without having to take out foreign exchange at one time.

In terms of settlement, both parties can trade in RMB or Iranian Riyal to bypass US dollar sanctions. The Chabahar Port project jointly jointly conducted by China-Iran in 2023 was promoted using this model and has not been affected by sanctions so far.

What reassures Iran even more is China's "full-chain capabilities".

When helping Indonesia build the Jakarta-Bandung High-speed Railway, China packed services from rail board production to signal system debugging, and then to later operation and maintenance. Now, the Jakarta-Bandung High-speed Railway transports 30,000 passengers every day, with an on-time rate of more than 99%.

What Iranian iron now needs is not scattered equipment, but solutions that can solve all problems, and China happens to be able to do it.

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Challenges on the Road to Cooperation: Hundreds of Billions of Funds and the Middle East Security Test Questions

However, there are still many obstacles to overcome to turn the vision of "national railway interconnection" into reality.

The most direct thing is money. According to the cost of the Salges-Lazi Railway, Iran will need at least hundreds of billions of dollars to achieve national railway interconnection.

However, Iran's current foreign exchange reserves are limited and oil exports are restricted. Even if there is a "oil for infrastructure" plan, it still requires long-term and stable oil production support. Iran's oil field aging problem still requires additional investment in transformation.

In addition, security risks are even more difficult to avoid.

The situation in the Middle East is complex, and armed conflicts are still occurring in some areas around Iran. Last year, extremist organizations attacked railway facilities.

If Chinese enterprise personnel enter the construction, a detailed plan is required for safety guarantees; even if the railway is completed, how to deal with possible damage and ensure stable operation is also an issue that both parties need to consider.

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Also, return on investment is also a factor that must be considered.

Although China-Iran cooperation is strategic, China is not a "philanthropist". If Iran cannot fulfill its contract on time due to sanctions or economic issues in the future, the project may face risks.

Therefore, when promoting cooperation, China is likely to adopt a "step-by-step" strategy: first complete the key route from Salges to Lazi, and then expand other projects based on actual conditions, and will not "take over" them all at once.

For Iran, this is an important opportunity to get rid of economic difficulties; for China, this is also the key layout of the "Belt and Road" in the Middle East.

But this road will not be smooth sailing. Both sides need to use patience and pragmatism to turn the vision on the high-speed rail step by step into a steel network on the land of Iran.

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