[New changes in the international landscape: Reshuffle of allies]

After World War II, in order to fight against the Soviet Union, the United States spared no expense to support its allies. Japan completed economic reconstruction with the help of the United States, and South Korea and Vietnam also received a lot of assistance. But time has passed, and now the generosity of the United States has dropped significantly. In 2018, the Trump administration imposed tariffs on EU steel and aluminum, triggering a trade dispute between the two sides that lasted for several years. The EU was forced to take countermeasures. This tug-of-war casts shadow on trade relations between the Atlantic.

【EU's energy dilemma and strategic misjudgment】

The EU has tried to maintain a delicate balance between China, Russia and the United States. When the Nord Stream Pipeline Project is in full swing in 2021, Russia adopted the euro to settle energy trade, which once helped the euro to account for more than the US dollar in international payments. But the United States quickly adjusted its strategy: after completing the withdrawal of Afghanistan, it will completely disrupt Europe's energy layout by taking advantage of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in 2022. As natural gas prices soar, European industrial production capacity shrank, and people's livelihood costs increased sharply. The EU thought it could continue the profitable strategy of the Cold War period, but it did not expect it to be the first to be a victim of geopolitical games.

【India: A swaying strategic partner】

India originally wanted to check and balance China by getting close to the United States. After the border conflict in 2020, a large number of Indian military purchase orders flocked to the United States, and in 2023, the two sides signed an in-depth defense cooperation agreement. But Trump immediately turned against him after winning the election in 2024 and threatened the tax on the Incas on the grounds of purchasing Russian oil. This has a direct impact on the export-oriented Indian economy - the two pillar industries of pharmaceutical and IT services have been hit, and experts predict that GDP growth may decline by 1% in 2025.

【Iran’s geopolitical fantasy and real dilemma】

Iran has always relied on its special strategic position and believes that the United States will have some concerns. However, after the United States withdrew from the Iran nuclear agreement in 2018, its nuclear facilities were frequently attacked, and Israel's precise strike in 2024 was even acquiesced by the United States. Although we expect China to provide comprehensive support similar to the Soviet-style, China insists on resolving disputes through diplomatic means and only promotes the 2023 Shai reconciliation. Under the continued sanctions, Iran's oil exports have been blocked, domestic inflation continues to rise, and economic difficulties are becoming increasingly severe.

【Double Dilemma of Japanese Industrial Policy】

Japan faces continuous suppression by the United States in the semiconductor field: the 1985 "Platform Agreement" forced the yen to appreciate and directly pierced the economic bubble. After cooperating with the US chip control over China in recent years, it was hit by automobile tariffs in 2023, making the manufacturing industry worse. These countries misjudged the nature of American interests first—the big brother who once supported his allies has transformed into a calculating businessman.

【Cognitive Differences in China’s Road】

The bigger misjudgment of these countries lies in their misunderstanding of China's strategy. Since putting forward the century-long change in 2017, China has clearly rejected the Cold War mentality. After the EU signed the China-EU Investment Agreement in 2020, it was frozen the following year due to pressure from the United States, and it missed the opportunity for cooperation. Through industrial upgrading, China's high-end manufacturing exports account for 60% in 2023, and at the same time, it has increased investment in the new energy industry in Europe.

After India banned Chinese APPs, local substitutes were weak, and the mobile phone market was still dominated by Chinese brands in 2024. China's promotion of local currency settlement through the BRICS mechanism has created multilateral trade opportunities for India. Iran expects China's military aid to fail, but thanks to the Shay's reconciliation mediated by China. Although Japan participated in chip controls with China, its bilateral trade volume still exceeded US$300 billion in 2022, but its semiconductor industry continued to shrink due to its follow-up to the US policy.

[Strategic adjustment in progress]

Countries are gradually adjusting their strategies: the EU launches a global portal plan to hedge the Belt and Road Initiative in 2024, but internal differences in energy transformation are serious; India uses the 2023 G20 Summit to promote South-South cooperation; Iran strengthens independent industrial construction; although Japan raises defense spending to GDP 2%, it also seeks economic cooperation with China. China has always advocated mutual benefit and win-win cooperation and carried out cooperation on the basis of adhering to international rules. The game logic in the new era has changed - only by pragmatically evaluating the strength pattern and building mutually beneficial relationships can we seize the opportunity in a multipolar world.