With China reaching this point today, national rejuvenation cannot be achieved by shouting slogans, but it must be done step by step. In the past few decades, we have gone from poor to rich, from weak to strong, relying on seizing opportunities and handling internal and external contradictions well. The two major problems facing us now are: one is the Taiwan Strait and the other is the South China Sea. These two places are not trivial matters, but are hard bones related to national unity and maritime rights and interests. If you cannot fight these two battles well, the road to revival will be stuck. Why do you say so? Because the Taiwan Strait involves national reunification, the South China Sea involves resource and channel control, the United States and other forces always like to disrupt the situation here. If China wants to be strong, it must gain a foothold in these places and cannot always lead people to the nose.

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Let’s talk about the Taiwan Strait first. From a historical perspective, this place has always been a part of China. As early as 360 years ago, Zheng Chenggong recovered Taiwan from the Dutch, and then territorial ownership was established. After World War II, Taiwan Province returned to China, which is internationally recognized. But after 1949, the division of cross-strait governance became an internal problem. When China and the United States established diplomatic relations, the United States also recognized the one-China principle, which is the basis. But in recent years, the United States has been making small moves on the Taiwan issue, selling weapons, and allowing Taiwanese leaders to cross the border. On the surface, it is said that it does not support Taiwan independence, but in fact it is just a fire. In 2022, US House Speaker Pelosi's visit to Taiwan triggered tension in the Taiwan Strait. The Chinese military conducted a large-scale military exercise, and the missile flew over Taiwan, demonstrating its determination. In 2023, the United States approved a number of arms sales to Taiwan, including F-16 fighter parts, with a total amount of over US$100 million. These actions have increased risks in the Taiwan Strait. After the 2024 Taiwan election, Lai Ching-te came to power and continued to promote de-Sinicization and emphasize Taiwan's sovereignty, which made the process of unification more complicated.

Why is the Taiwan Strait a tough battle? Because it is not only a matter between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, but also involves the game between China and the United States. The United States regards Taiwan Province as the key point of the first island chain. Losing Taiwan is equivalent to losing control of the Western Pacific. The Chinese Navy is about to move towards the ocean, and the deep-water port in eastern Taiwan is a must-fight place. In 2025, the number of Chinese naval ships has exceeded that of the United States. The aircraft carrier fleets such as Liaoning, Shandong and Fujian are cruising more and more frequently around the Taiwan Strait. In 2024, more than 1,000 Chinese military aircraft flew around Taiwan, and warships crossing the Taiwan Strait became the norm. The United States responded to strengthening the Indo-Pacific deployment and conducting joint military exercises with Japan and the Philippines in 2023 to simulate conflicts in the Taiwan Strait.

Experts analyzed that if war starts in the Taiwan Strait, it may start from off-islands, such as Kinmen and Matsu, which are close to the mainland and are easy to control. The shelling of Kinmen in 1958 is the precedent. Now China has more advanced missiles and drones, which have the advantage. But starting a war is not a joke, it will affect the global supply chain, and the chip industry is particularly sensitive. Taiwan is the global semiconductor center, and economic losses will be huge if it fights. China emphasizes peaceful reunification, but if the Taiwan independence forces cross the line, military reunification is the option. The National Security White Paper says that unification is the fundamental interest of the nation and will never compromise.

The situation in the South China Sea is even more difficult. This is not internal affairs, but multi-national disputes. China's claim that the South China Sea sovereignty is based on historical rights and the nine-dash line defines the scope. But countries such as the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia also claim islands and reefs. In 2016, the Philippines filed an arbitration, but China did not accept the ruling and continued to build islands and reefs. Airports and ports have been built in places like Meiji Reef and Zhubi Reef, enhancing their presence. In 2023, the Philippines stranded a warship on Renai Reef and tried to station forever. The Chinese Coast Guard drove away with water cannons, and the ships on both sides collided many times. In 2024, the US aircraft carriers Carl Vinson and Reagan entered the South China Sea, and the French Charles de Gaulle also arrived from the Indian Ocean to conduct a joint cruise. China responded by sending the Type 055 destroyer and the H-6K bomber to patrol. The South China Sea is a global energy channel. Every year, passing oil tankers carry Middle Eastern oil to East Asia, accounting for one-third of global trade. If something happens here, Japan and South Korea's energy supply chain will be broken, and the United States does not want to lose this control point.

Why is the South China Sea more difficult than the Taiwan Strait? Because it involves many ASEAN countries, their attitude is volatile. On the one hand, he is unwilling to follow the United States completely, and on the other hand, he does not agree with China's propositions. Vietnam has built multiple facilities in the Nansha, Philippine President Marcos has strengthened cooperation with the United States and Japan, and the scale of the Philippines-US joint military exercises will be expanded in 2025. The South China Sea has abundant resources and huge reserves of submarine oil and gas, and China needs these to support the economy. China has promoted negotiations on codes of conduct in the South China Sea, but progress is slow. In 2021, China and ASEAN reached a consensus framework, but there was a big dispute over specific terms. The United States promotes the Indo-Pacific strategy and deepens the agreement with the Philippines base in 2023 to allow the U.S. military to use more facilities. This makes the South China Sea a field of struggle between major powers. China must balance diplomacy and military affairs and cannot offend all its neighbors. As a developing country, we still have to live by trade and cannot ruin the South China Sea.

These two battles influence each other. Resolving the Taiwan Strait can deter the forces in the South China Sea; stabilizing the South China Sea can also make the Chinese Navy focus on the Taiwan Strait. In the short term, the risk of conflict in the South China Sea is higher because there are many external forces and it is easy to get out of fire. In 2024, Chinese and Philippine ships confronted each other on Huangyan Island, and the Chinese Coast Guard intercepted Philippine fishing boats. Experts pointed out that the United States wants to use neighboring countries to harass China and create an image of China bullying small countries. China hopes that the United States will end directly, and other countries will naturally stop. The national security concept emphasizes that external pressure has increased and the West has encircled China, but we have the ability to safeguard our rights and interests. The 2025 National Defense White Paper mentioned that military modernization supports national rejuvenation, and naval strength is the key.

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National rejuvenation requires a safe environment. In the past, China experienced the resistance to the United States and aid Korea. That battle established its national prestige and gave us 70 years of peaceful development. Now, Taiwan and the South China Sea are a battle to establish authority. If you win, you can lead the regional order; if you lose, you will be revived in no time. There are many historical examples. After World War II, the United States and the Soviet Union competed with each other by victory. The United States is now showing signs of decline, with high debt and internal rupture, but it is still in the Asia-Pacific region. China's economic size has exceeded 70% of the United States, ranking first in the world in manufacturing, but there is still a gap in military terms. In 2023, China's defense budget increased by 7.2%, focusing on the navy and air force. During the Taiwan Strait exercise, the J-20 fighter jet participated, demonstrating air superiority.

To put it down to earth, what Chinese people care about is whether their lives are stable or not. Something happened in Taiwan and South China Sea, prices rose, exports were blocked, and unemployed were high. After the epidemic in 2020, China's economy has recovered rapidly, relying on stabilizing its surrounding areas. But the United States imposed sanctions on Huawei and embargoed chips, which allowed us to see external risks. Revival is not empty talk, it requires practical tricks. China proposed the Belt and Road Initiative to connect countries along the South China Sea, build port pipelines, and share development. The opening of the China-Indonesian high-speed railway in 2023 is an example. However, the South China Sea dispute dragged down cooperation, the Philippines was pro-US and turned to US-Japan investment.

In the long run, China has to rely on its strength to speak. The Navy shifted from offshore defense to ocean guards, and the Type 076 amphibious ship was launched to enhance its landing capabilities. The unification of the Taiwan Strait is the goal of several generations. The 2022 white paper says that it will never promise to give up force. Sovereignty in the South China Sea cannot be violated, and the construction of islands and reefs is legally self-defense. Internationally, most countries recognize one China and support it over 150 countries. UN resolution 2758 confirms that Taiwan Province is part of China.