Retired Major General Katsuya Yamamoto of the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force said at a think tank meeting in Tokyo that if the People's Liberation Army takes action, it will be able to wipe out Taiwan's independence forces within 24 hours and capture the entire island within 72 hours.

The core of his simulation, which went viral in the media, was the coordination of all branches of the People's Liberation Army. The missiles opened the way first, the air force and navy followed, electronic warfare sealed the attack, and the landing force ended in one wave.

His calculations were precise and he achieved control of the air and sea on the first day. Taiwan's air defense network was paralyzed, the chain of command was broken, and the Taiwan military was unable to react. On the US military side, even if the aircraft carrier group arrives, it will take time to assemble and cannot be deployed within 24 hours.

The People's Liberation Army has rapidly updated its equipment in recent years. The J-20 has been put into service in batches. The Navy has Liaoning and Shandong ships at hand, and the 052D destroyer formation can block the strait.

During the Taiwan Strait crisis in 1996, two US aircraft carrier groups came over. At that time, the People's Liberation Army Air Force had 24 Su-27s, and the Navy's Type 051 destroyer had just been refitted. Now, the Air Force has nearly a thousand J-10s and J-11s, and the Navy has more than 80 054A frigates. The gap is widening.

But having said that, with its military strength now strong, why isn’t the mainland eager to take action? Yamamoto Katsuya himself admitted that this deduction assumes a quick victory, but in reality there is still an economic hurdle.

The United States has continued to sell arms to Taiwan in recent years, and approved another batch of missile systems in the first half of 2024, but the mainland is not afraid. The Belt and Road Initiative has paved the way, and African and European countries have developed vigorous trade with China. The Sino-US trade volume accounts for 14.8% of the United States’ global trade, and Chinese products are everywhere on the shelves of American supermarkets.

According to 2024 data, Sino-US trade is still rising. American people cannot live without Chinese manufacturing. If economic sanctions are really imposed, their own economy will be destroyed first. The mainland's economy is stable and its foreign exchange reserves are strong. The sanctions are effective against Russia but not against China.

Yamamoto Katsuya’s simulation also pointed out a key point. The PLA’s intelligence and battlefield awareness were much better than those in Russia and Wu. In 2022, the Russian army was stuck outside Kiev, with distorted intelligence and insufficient supplies. Ukraine relied on Western aid to stall for time.

Taiwan is a small island with PLA missiles covering the entire territory, and satellite links transmit data in real time. As soon as cyber warfare begins, the C4ISR system will misfire.

During the 2024 round-the-Taiwan military exercise, PLA warships and aircraft circled the island, Taiwan's radar was spinning blindly, and soldiers were in a panic practicing defensive landings on the beach. The U.S. think tank CSIS has deduced that Taiwan Province resisted for 96 hours before the United States and Japan intervened to stabilize the situation, but at the cost of the U.S. military losing two aircraft carriers and thousands of soldiers.

In the Kinmen fishing boat incident in 2024, Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party dragged its feet in handling the incident. The families of mainland fishermen held banners at the pier, and coast patrol boats were dispatched, causing panic. But the mainland did not take the lead. Senior officials met to watch the polls and prioritized dialogue.

In the first half of 2025, Taiwanese naval exercises intensified, with soldiers digging trenches and tanks pressing down on the terrain. However, mainland cruises became normalized, ships crossed the strait, and radars were stable. Sino-U.S. trade data came out again in September. Chinese products accounted for 18.6% of U.S. imports, and Chinese goods were piled high in supermarkets.

This economic chain is constantly being torn apart and cut into chaos. Who dares to take action first?

Peaceful unification of one country, two systems is still the main theme. In April 2024, the mainland issued a white paper. The press conference was crowded with reporters and the spokesperson read out the key points.

In the final analysis, the military reunification exercise is just an exercise on paper. If there is a real fight, the people on the island will suffer, the mainland's economy will be shaken, and the global supply chain will be disrupted.

Yamamoto Katsuya’s 24-hour theory reminds everyone that the People’s Liberation Army is confident, but it also knocks the United States.

A Japanese think tank reports that the People's Liberation Army is leading in electronic warfare.

Generally speaking, the Taiwan Strait is a pot of porridge, where military power, economy, and people's hearts are all mixed together.

The People's Liberation Army has become stronger and the U.S.'s checks and balances have weakened. However, the mainland is not in a hurry and is proceeding steadily.

The road to reunification on both sides of the Taiwan Strait is still long, but the direction is the same.

Reference: How far is "Martial Reunion" from Taiwan? Taiwanese media lists three conditions CCTV