Preface

The recent "marathon" talks between the heads of state of China and the United States in Busan, South Korea, directly stirred global nerves and capital markets.

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Some people say that this is a "truce" between China and the United States, while others worry that it is the prelude to a new round of competition.

The chain effect triggered by high-level dialogue between China and the United States

At the end of October 2025, the heads of state of China and the United States rarely sat down and chatted for a full 100 minutes. This kind of high-level interview is usually supposed to be "presence talk" "posture". Unexpectedly, the actual effect this time exceeded everyone's expectations. Trump directly gave it a high score of "12 points" at the press conference, even exceeding the perfect score of 10 points that Americans love most.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent also followed suit, saying that the atmosphere at the talks was "unprecedentedly good." Facts speak louder than words. Not long after, the United States announced the cancellation of the 10% fentanyl tariff on some Chinese goods, suspended the newly implemented penetrating rules, and temporarily shelved the Section 301 investigation into my country's maritime field. All of these were set for a one-year "cooling off period."

Our country is not just watching. After the talks, relevant countermeasures were adjusted simultaneously, especially in the specific trade of agricultural products and enterprises, releasing a series of goodwill signals. To put it bluntly, this is not about who "gives in", but who knows better how to "speak" with interests.

After all, the penetrating rules introduced by the U.S. Department of Commerce only recently have brought all subsidiaries of Chinese companies listed on the entity list into the scope of export control. American companies originally hoped that this rule would "stuck" my country's technology companies, but it turned out to be a disaster for them. Export business is stuck, licenses are piling up, and even domestic companies in the United States are jumping out of business.

Reality quickly gave the United States a "boomerang". Our country did not passively take the beating, but took precise measures. As soon as the export control of rare earths came into effect, the global semiconductor, automobile, military and other industries became nervous.

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Immediately afterwards, soybean imports were suspended, and the agricultural states of the United States directly felt the "vote earthquake". These countermeasures are no joke, and have directly overwhelmed relevant industries and voters in the United States. Only then did Trump realize that the so-called "maximum pressure" would not work here in our country.

In this round of the Great Game, the first ones to be hit are not the United States, but the European Union and the Netherlands. The Nexperia incident in the Netherlands has become a typical negative example. At the end of last year, the Dutch government cooperated with the United States and froze the global assets of the Chinese-controlled Nexperia on the grounds of "national security" and forcibly removed the Chinese CEO.

On the surface, this is "responding to allies," but the truth is that high-level officials from the United States and the Netherlands have communicated privately long ago, and the Americans have no intention of giving China a chance to breathe. The Dutch government thought that this would be able to obtain sanctions exemptions from the United States. Unexpectedly, as soon as it took action, the United States turned around and reached an agreement with our country, leaving the Netherlands aside.

What are the consequences? The first is an incident in the supply chain. my country has cut off supply to Nexperia, and European car companies have borne the brunt. Chip inventories have bottomed out, and Volkswagen's German factory even suspended production for a time. ASML has a huge market share in my country, and its reliance on rare earths has reached 30%. In just one month, ASML lost three large orders. The Netherlands acted as the "vanguard" of the United States, but ended up becoming the biggest loser.

The most embarrassing thing is that the German Deputy Prime Minister has to personally communicate with our country to try to repair Sino-German relations. The French President also publicly stated that the United States and China cannot be allowed to determine the future of global science and technology. The EU's anxiety is all written on its face, and they suddenly discovered that they may have become a victim of the "reconciliation" between China and the United States.

At this point, we actually have to admit that the "G2 Era" proposed by Trump in a high-profile manner is indeed supported by data. In 2024, the total GDP of China and the United States will account for 43% of the world's total, and the scale of my country's manufacturing industry is even twice that of the United States.

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But reality is not that simple, and the global landscape is becoming more complex. The European Union, Japan, India and other economies are all trying to find their own roles, and no one wants to become a "tool man" in the game between great powers. The interaction between China and the United States has long been not limited to trade. Technology, industrial chains, finance, and even geopolitics are all competing.

The wisdom of great powers and global strategic independence

In this back-and-forth contest, our country has demonstrated strong strategic independence. In the face of new regulations from the United States one after another, from the entity list to penetrating rules to so-called "national security risks," my country has not passively defended, but counterattacked legally and compliantly, making flexible use of key resources such as rare earths and soybeans to safeguard its own interests and the security of the industrial chain.

After the Busan talks, the easing of the situation has won valuable space for my country's high-quality development. No one dares to underestimate our country’s strategic determination and operational capabilities.

In fact, the embarrassment of the Netherlands is a microcosm of small countries around the world. On the surface, it seemed to be "taking sides" with the United States, but as soon as the United States turned around and shook hands with my country, the Netherlands became a victim of the industrial chain. The European chip supply chain is broken, the automobile industry is damaged, and Germany and France are taking the lead in diplomacy. The situation of the Netherlands can only be described as "riding a tiger with difficulty."

This also shows that global technology competition is becoming increasingly fierce, and relying on a single market or blindly taking sides is extremely risky. Our country has used its own size and policy flexibility to avoid the fate of passive sacrifice.

Looking deeper, the Busan Talks are not as simple as a "truce", but a new dynamic balance in the relations between major powers. China and the United States are no longer simply in confrontation or cooperation. Instead, they are looking for space for cooperation in competition and maintaining a strategic bottom line in cooperation.

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This new normal of "cooperation amid confrontation" provides the possibility for the stability of the global economy and industrial chains. Our country safeguards its interests with its strength, strives to take the initiative through negotiations, promotes high-level dialogue and industrial chain coordination, and forms a good situation in which "we take the lead".

For the EU and other small and medium-sized countries, the Busan incident is undoubtedly a wake-up call. Blindly following the big powers may end up being sacrificed at the negotiation table. The world is accelerating towards multipolarity, and all countries need to enhance their strategic autonomy to avoid being coerced or marginalized.

Our country’s goal has always been to promote win-win global cooperation and not engage in a zero-sum game. Whether it is the Belt and Road Initiative or high-quality opening up, our country has always adhered to equality and mutual benefit. This is also the reason why our country has won respect and initiative in the global game.

Judging from the entire incident, after the Busan talks, the world witnessed a more confident and mature China. In the game between great powers, the battle is not only about hard power, but also about strategic wisdom. Those small countries that only follow the trend can easily capsize in the wind and waves. Whoever can seize the opportunities of the times will be qualified to gain a firm foothold in the global changes.

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This drama is far from over. The essence of great power competition is always a contest of comprehensive strength and strategic determination. Will you choose to go with the flow, or, like our country, hold your destiny firmly in your own hands?

In this unscripted contest, it may take time to answer who is the real winner.

Reference: Niu Tanqin: Trump is going to start messing with Europe again - Beijing News Network