At the Central Economic Work Conference held at the end of last year, General Secretary Xi Jinping delivered an important speech, comprehensively summarizing the economic work in 2024, deeply analyzing the economic situation, and systematically deploying the economic work in 2025, pointing out the direction and providing guidance for solidly doing a good job in economic work. The meeting made a profound discussion on the overall situation of my country's economic operation, pointing out that in the face of the complex and severe situation of increasing external pressure and increasing internal difficulties, the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping as the core united and led the whole Party and people of all ethnic groups in the country to calmly respond and comprehensively implement policies, and the economic operation was generally stable and steady. Only by accurately grasping the overall trend of my country's economic operation can we have a deeper understanding of the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference and do a good job in economic work in 2025.

In 2024, the economic operation is generally stable and steady.

Regarding the economic operation in 2024, we can grasp it from four major macro-control indicators: economic growth, employment situation, price trends, and balance of payments.

From the perspective of economic growth. In the first three quarters of last year, my country's GDP grew by 4.8% year-on-year. Among them, the growth was 5.3% in the first quarter, achieving a good start; the downward pressure on the economy increased in the second and third quarters, with growth rates of 4.7% and 4.6% respectively. The Party Central Committee promptly analyzed the situation and decisively deployed a package of incremental policies to promote a significant recovery in the fourth quarter. The overall economic operation showed a trend of high, medium and low, and rising in the future. It is expected that the annual economic growth will be about 5%, higher than the average annual growth rate of 4.7% in the past four years. According to the International Monetary Fund's forecast, the world economy will grow by 3.2% in 2024, of which developed economies will grow by 1.8%, emerging markets and developing countries will grow by 4.2%, and major economies such as the United States, the euro zone, Japan, Russia, Brazil, and South Africa will grow by 2.8%, 0.8%, 0.3%, 3.6%, 3.0% and 1.1% respectively. Whether compared with the past few years or with major economies around the world, my country's economy has a very impressive growth rate and is still an important engine to promote world economic growth.

Judging from the employment situation. Thanks to the stable economic progress, various regions and departments have strengthened employment priority policies. From January to November last year, the average national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.1%, down 0.1 percentage point from the same period last year. The service industry and urban employment personnel continued to grow, and employment in key groups such as migrant workers were generally stable. Overall, the average national urban surveyed unemployment rate can be effectively controlled within the "about 5.5%" target proposed in the 2024 Government Work Report. Judging from the number of new jobs, from January to November last year, 11.98 million new urban jobs were created nationwide, which was very close to the goal of "more than 12 million new urban jobs". It can be seen that whether it is the urban survey unemployment rate or the number of new urban jobs, the targets set at the beginning of the year can be achieved in 2024.

Judging from the price trend. Affected by factors such as the relative insufficient domestic market demand and the continuous decline in commodity prices in the international market, the price level generally showed a low-level operation trend, the prices in the consumer sector fluctuated at low levels and rebounded slightly, and prices in the production sector continued to decline but the decline narrowed. Last year, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.2% over the previous year; the national industrial producer price index (PPI) fell 2.2% over the previous year. In December, PPI fell by 2.3% year-on-year, narrowing the decline from last month.

From the perspective of the balance of payments. In 2024, my country's foreign trade situation was better than expected, cross-border capital flows were stable and orderly, the RMB exchange rate remained basically stable in two-way fluctuations, and the balance of payments remained basically balanced. From January to November, imports and exports of goods increased by 4.9% year-on-year, of which exports increased by 6.7%, imports increased by 2.4%, and the trade surplus was 6.3 trillion yuan. From January to October, imports and exports of services increased by 14.6% year-on-year, of which exports increased by 16.6%, imports increased by 13.2%, and the deficit of 1.04 trillion yuan. In the first three quarters, the ratio of current account surplus to GDP was 1.8%, which was in a reasonable range. As of the end of December last year, foreign exchange reserves remained above US$3.2 trillion.

Overall, my country's economic operation was disturbed by various factors in 2024, but judging from the annual trend, the macroeconomic market remained stable. The Central Economic Work Conference made a judgment that "the overall stable economic operation and steady progress" is realistic.

New progress has been made in high-quality development

High-quality development is the primary task of comprehensively building a modern socialist country. my country's economic operation is stable and progressing, which is not only reflected in the stable operation of major macro indicators, but also in the continuous progress of high-quality development.

New achievements have been made in innovative development. Scientific and technological innovation continues to empower high-quality development, and new quality productivity accelerates the development. From January to November last year, the added value of high-tech manufacturing above scale increased by 9% year-on-year, significantly faster than the growth rate of industrial added value above scale. Meanwhile, the manufacturing of computer, communications and other electronic equipment increased by 12.2% year-on-year, while the manufacturing of railways, ships, aerospace and other transportation equipment increased by 10.9%. In addition, investment in high-tech industries increased by 8.8%, significantly faster than the growth rate of all investments.

Green development has taken new steps. Green and low-carbon transformation is steadily promoted, clean energy supply is accelerating, and the market competitiveness of new energy-related products is constantly increasing. In the first three quarters of last year, the production of charging piles and solar cells increased by 57.2% and 12.8% respectively, with a relatively fast growth rate; the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption in total energy consumption increased by 2.6 percentage points year-on-year. From January to November, the national industrial wind power generation and solar power generation increased by 11.5% and 27.8% year-on-year respectively, far higher than the growth of industrial power generation above the scale; the output of new energy vehicles increased by 37.5% year-on-year, and the annual output exceeded 10 million vehicles for the first time.

Coordinated development is increasing. Regional coordinated development has been deepened, regional economic layout with complementary advantages has been further optimized, the role of high-quality development sources such as Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, and Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area has been better played, and the "three horses" of consumption, investment and net exports have become more coordinated in the driving role of the economy. In the first three quarters of last year, the contribution rates of final consumption expenditure, total capital formation, net exports of goods and services to economic growth were 49.9%, 26.3%, and 23.8%, respectively. Although domestic effective demand is relatively insufficient, overall, my country's coordinated development is increasing.

Shared development is moving forward steadily. The sustained economic growth and stable employment situation have driven the recovery of residents' income. In the first three quarters of last year, the per capita disposable income of residents nationwide was 30,941 yuan, a nominal increase of 5.2% over the same period last year. After deducting price factors, the actual growth was 4.9%, 0.1 percentage point higher than the economic growth rate of 4.8%, achieving the synchronization of residents' income and economic growth. At the same time, people's livelihood security is solid and powerful, and shared development is moving forward steadily.

Open development is being further promoted. Against the backdrop of complex and changing external environment, the vast majority of foreign trade entities have actively explored the international market, and my country has closer economic and trade ties with countries around the world. In the first three quarters of last year, my country's imports and exports to other member countries of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP) reached 9.63 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%; from January to November, imports and exports to countries jointly built the "Belt and Road" were 18.74 trillion yuan, an increase of 6%. my country's current export market is diversified and does not rely on individual markets. This is also the confidence we are in dealing with external suppression.

The recent cumulative increase in positive factors

Since late September last year, in response to new situations and new problems in economic operation, the Party Central Committee has taken overall charge, made scientific decisions, and took decisive actions. While effectively implementing the existing policies, it has stepped up efforts to launch a package of incremental policies. This package of incremental policies anchors the annual goals and tasks, focuses on business entities and social concerns, adheres to systematic measures and combines long-term and short-term, pays more attention to improving the quality of economic development, pays more attention to supporting the healthy development of the real economy and business entities, and pays more attention to coordinating high-quality development and high-level security. These three "paying more attention" is not only to improve the speed of economic growth, but also to improve the quality of economic development. Under the combined effect of existing policies and incremental policies, the number of positive factors that promote economic recovery and improvement has accumulated.

From the perspective of market sales. Large-scale equipment updates and policy of exchanging consumer goods for old products will not only benefit people's livelihood but also drive consumer goods updates. In October last year, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.8% year-on-year, 1.6 percentage points faster than the previous month; in November, the retail sales of household appliances, audio-visual equipment and furniture products of units above the limit maintained double-digit growth, which shows that the old-for-new policy has strong driving force. From January to November, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.5% year-on-year, the same as in January to October, and 0.2 percentage points faster than in January to September; the retail sales of services increased by 6.4% year-on-year, faster than the retail sales of goods. The rapid growth of service retail sales is also an important manifestation of my country's consumption transformation and upgrading.

From the perspective of fixed asset investment. Driven by the "two-fold" policies, investment in key areas and equipment renewal investment have maintained rapid growth. From January to November last year, the national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) was 46.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.3% year-on-year, and remained basically stable for four consecutive months; among which, infrastructure investment increased by 4.2%, and manufacturing investment increased by 9.3%, which was significantly faster than the growth of all investments, and had a significant support effect on investment.

From the perspective of foreign trade import and export. As global trade growth slows down and protectionism increases, my country's foreign trade has grown rapidly. In October last year, the total import and export volume of goods increased by 4.6% year-on-year, 3.9 percentage points faster than the previous month, of which exports increased by 11.2%. In November, the total import and export of goods increased by 1.2%, and exports increased by 5.8%. From these data, the significant effects of the package incremental policies can be seen.

From the perspective of industrial production. Driven by large-scale equipment updates, in October last year, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.3% year-on-year, and accelerated to 5.4% in November; from January to November, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.8% year-on-year. Overall, after a monthly year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value above scale declined for four consecutive months, it began to stabilize and rebound in September, and maintained rapid growth with the support of policies.

From the perspective of service industry development. In November last year, the national service industry production index increased by 6.1% year-on-year, maintaining above 6%, significantly higher than the speed before October. Among them, driven by a package of incremental policies, the production indexes of finance, real estate, wholesale and retail industries all rebounded significantly. From January to November, the national service industry production index increased by 5.1% year-on-year, accelerating by 0.1 percentage point from January to October.

From the perspective of market confidence and expectations. With the accelerated implementation of stock policies and the increased launch of a package of incremental policies, in October last year, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 50.1%, which was the first time that it had rebounded to the expansion range since May last year; in December, the PMI was 50.1%, which was in the expansion range for three consecutive months. In October last year, the expected index of enterprise production and operation activities was 54.0%, up 2 percentage points, 54.7% in November and 53.3% in December. Stock markets are boosted and real estate transactions are becoming more active. This fully reflects the boost in market confidence and the improvement in expectations.

View the current economic situation correctly

Last year, the Central Economic Work Conference clarified the overall requirements, policy orientation and key tasks of this year's economic work. We must consciously use the Party Central Committee’s scientific judgment on the situation to unify our thoughts, will and actions.

From the perspective of development trend. my country's economic foundation is stable, has many advantages, strong resilience and great potential, and the long-term positive support conditions and basic trends have not changed. With the continued release of the effects of various stock policies in the early stage and the accelerated implementation of a package of incremental policies, market expectations have improved and economic operation has shown a rebound and positive trend. In the next step, we must implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, strengthen the coordination and cooperation between fiscal, monetary, employment, industry, regional, trade, environmental protection, supervision and other policies and reform and opening-up measures, and launch a "combination punch" of policies to promote the sustained recovery and improvement of the economy.

From the perspective of difficulties and challenges. The current adverse impacts brought about by changes in the external environment have increased, domestic effective demand is insufficient, some enterprises have difficulty in production and operation, people are facing pressure to increase their employment and income, and there are still many risks and hidden dangers. We must face up to the existing difficulties, enhance risk awareness and strengthen bottom-line thinking, actively respond to difficulties and challenges, stimulate endogenous development momentum, and continuously consolidate the positive momentum of economic recovery.

To implement the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference with a spirit of hard work, we must adhere to the principle of doing things first, pay attention to goal guidance, and strive to achieve an optimized combination of stable growth, stable employment and reasonable price recovery; grasp the policy orientation, pay attention to the timing and intensity, and do everything as soon as possible, and ensure sufficient strength; strengthen systematic thinking, pay attention to the consistency of macro-policy orientation, and amplify the policy effect. At the same time, we will vigorously improve the effectiveness of implementation, fully mobilize the enthusiasm, initiative and creativity of grassroots units, continuously optimize the business environment, and better gather the joint force to promote high-quality development.

(The author is a researcher at the China Institute of Macroeconomics)

"People's Daily" (page 09, January 10, 2025)