Once Russia and Ukraine ceasefire, will China face disaster? To put it bluntly, once the Russian-Ukrainian war is in a standstill, the United States and Western countries may free up their hands to punish China. After all, the United States and Western countries have always regarded China as a competitor.

Who would have thought that one day the Russian-Ukraine War ended not because some of the two sides were about to lose, but because China, an irrelevant third-party country, was too powerful, which led to the Russian-Ukraine War ending. The United States urgently needed to focus all its energy on China.

Although this has not happened yet, everyone knows the reason why Trump is eager to get a ceasefire, which is also Russia's confidence.

China does need a "strategic breathing period" of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict - but not because it is afraid of the West, but because it takes time to weld the defensive shields more firmly.

The West always likes to exaggerate that "China makes money in war", but never mentions what it has done. The United States spent $50 billion on military aid to Ukraine in 2023, which was equivalent to cutting off local infrastructure renewal funds; Europe was forced to buy American liquefied gas at a price of 4 times, and German automakers moved the production line to China to save costs.

So, China has been winning, so who is at a loss? Just look at the plunge in US military stocks and the surge in China's new energy exports.

Energy security is the real stealth battlefield. Russia's discount on oil and gas has saved China's manufacturing costs by 100 billion yuan. The Central Asian pipeline transports 55 billion cubic meters of natural gas every year, which is enough for Shanghai's industrial electricity use for three years.

If Russia and Ukraine ceasefire and Russia's oil and gas return to the European market, China will indeed have to bid for Middle Eastern crude oil with India - but don't forget that China's photovoltaic capacity accounts for 80% of the world's global energy storage technology, and its energy storage technology is two generations ahead of Europe and the United States. If you force it to urgently accelerate the new energy revolution, let the petrodollar go to hell.

The most humorous thing is the "sanctions and intimidation" in the West. Trump reveals his news that he wants to impose 100% tariffs on China, but forgets that China holds a rare earth killer, just like a gambler yelling to overturn the table, but finds that the chips are all created by the other party. China doesn't care, but some people are panic.

The Asia-Pacific balance, the United States may underestimate China's "home field advantage". The South China Sea island reef radar station has covered the Strait of Malacca. Shandong ships carried unmanned boat groups to practice the "ant gnawing elephant" tactic. Even Filipino fishermen have learned to use Huawei mobile phones to receive Chinese coast guard cruise messages.

Even if the US military withdraws from Europe, it faces a completely different battlefield: China's anti-ship ballistic missile range covers Guam, and quantum communication turns US electronic warfare aircraft into an air iron coffin.

Of course, the ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine is by no means the end of the world. China has laid out a "de-risk" strategy as early as 2024: signing a local currency settlement agreement with Saudi Arabia, investing in the cobalt mine supply chain in Africa, and developing trading partners to 181 countries through the Belt and Road Initiative. When the Western sanctions stick is swung down, it will be found that the Chinese economy has become a "centipede" - cutting off one leg, and ninety-nine are left to run, and the impact of de-dollarization on China is minimal.

After all, everyone is a country with confidence. There is no simple logic of "winning the BOSS if you defeat the boss". Even if the United States frees up its efforts to encircle China, it must first solve the triple critical strikes of the 34 trillion national debt, shooting the epidemic, and internal struggle between the two parties.

Just like a boxer yelling to beat someone up, but forgetting that his ribs are still plugged in with a ventilator - in this state, he still wants to fight on both sides? Let’s renew the medical insurance account first!

Of course, if Russia and Ukraine really cease to fight, there is no need to panic too, because there will always be such a day. The Russian-Ukraine war will not last. When the war stops, it will be the day when China and the United States truly usher in a game.